About the NL wild-card race . . .
The Rockies are going to win it. Before dismissing this as prejudice, let’s dissect the candidates.
Be honest, the Cubs are done. They aren’t catching the Rockies. They can’t catch anything with their frying-pan hands. Slow-pitch softball teams play better defense.
Lou Piniella looks miserable managing this team of mismatched parts. The Cubs have become baseball’s version of the Dallas Cowboys. They are dysfunctional and undermined by temperamental (Carlos Zambrano) and one-dimensional (Alfonso Soriano) stars.
The Braves are interesting because of their arms. Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe have quietly enjoyed solid seasons, and rookie Tommy Hanson is a future ace who has made Atlanta fans forget the ugly divorce with Tom Glavine.
The problem? The Braves don’t hit enough. At the end of the day, they will be one bat short in their lineup.
How about the Marlins? I love this young team. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is a future MVP, the guy many executives tell me they would love to build a team around now that he’s taken more than a passing interest in defense. Florida has a knack for the dramatic, is athletic and plays fearless baseball. That’s a dangerous combination (see 2007 Rockies). Where the Marlins will be undone is their bullpen. They are a veteran arm shy of reaching the postseason.
Admittedly, I pick the Rockies over the Giants without full conviction. San Francisco, which was my sleeper team before the season, can run out two of baseball’s best young starters (Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain), has a mostly reliable relief corps and has the Ku Fung Panda, Pablo Sandoval. The Giants are built to win at home. On the road, not so much — even with the lineup additions of Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. That will be their undoing.
The Rockies look and feel like a playoff team because they pitch well and play defense. An argument could be made for Troy Tulowitzki, Clint Barmes and Todd Helton winning a Gold Glove. Yes, the Rockies strike out way too much. And that could doom them in a first-round postseason series against the Phillies’ three-headed monster of Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ. But the Rockies will hit just enough — Carlos Gonzalez is critical — and benefit from a home-friendly schedule down the stretch to reach the playoffs.
Christmas comes early in Chicago.
While no one can question the White Sox’s aggression, it’s fair to wonder what they were thinking in acquiring Jake Peavy and Alex Rios for $115 million.
Basically, the White Sox did their winter shopping in the summer. Peavy and Rios will make roughly what the White Sox were paying Jermaine Dye, Jose Contreras and Jim Thome, all of whom will be free agents. Thome is the only one who might come back, but at a discount.
So the money balances out. But what about the production? If Peavy is healthy, he will do fine. Rios, however, is another issue. For the better part of two seasons, ever since he signed a big contract, he’s been ordinary. Some of his former Blue Jays teammates questioned his work ethic. Seeing him at the 2007 All-Star Game, he had future MVP stamped on his chest. But if clubbing a baseball doesn’t become more important than night-clubbing, he will make fools of the White Sox for claiming him.
Footnotes.
One of the most memorable parts of spring training was getting to know Sal Fasano again. There are few players with his knowledge of the game. Recently, the Triple-A catcher took over the Sky Sox for a few innings after manager Stu Cole was ejected. Said Rockies reliever Adam Eaton, who was with the Sky Sox at the time: “He was in his element. He would make a great major-league manager someday.” Eaton credits Fasano for steering his career back on track, giving him a better understanding of how and when to throw his pitches. . . . For those wondering, Major League Baseball agreed with the ruling of a triple on Tulowitzki’s cycle because the shortstop never stopped running. . . . Jeff Francoeur has rebounded nicely with the Mets, leaving it easy to rip the Braves for giving up on a kid once deemed “The Natural.” The reality is that Francoeur needed a fresh start. The Braves were going to nontender him over the winter, so in outfielder Ryan Church they acquired a solid player rather than lose Francoeur for nothing. . . . The Rockies keep poking around for more bullpen help and a left-handed pinch hitter. With the Orioles nose-diving, Mark Hendrickson, whom the Rockies tried to get last month, could become available again. . . . Arizona’s Trent Oeltjen recorded 12 hits in his first five games, matching the highest total since 1961. . . . The Padres are playing better and getting a lift from rookie Mat Latos, who has a terrific fastball. . . . Talked to a scout who said he thought Justin Speier might be done after getting released by the Angels. His velocity has dropped to around 85 miles per hour. Speier was a character with the Rockies (think Ryan Spilborghs as a reliever).
EYE ON …
Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers
Background: Hamilton is quite possibly the greatest prep player ever. But he squandered a $3.96 million signing bonus from the Tampa Bay Rays when he became a drug addict. His unbelievable story of redemption led him to the Cincinnati Reds in 2007 and reached its pinnacle at the 2008 Home Run Derby at old Yankee Stadium. Hamilton gave a sellout crowd goose bumps that night, blasting 28 first-round home runs, including one 518 feet off his old high school batting-practice pitcher. Hamilton won the American League RBI title with 130, capping a spectacular season.
What’s up: While loneliness led to drug use, too much too fast became too much as well. Pictures of Hamilton’s relapse surfaced last week, with him on an alcohol bender in Arizona before spring training. Hamilton, 28, apologized for the incident, and his wife also asked for others to forgive him in her blog.
Renck’s take: Usually, apologies like this are followed by rolled eyes. But contrast Hamilton with David Ortiz’s tired act. Boston’s Ortiz made weak excuses and took no responsibility for how his name ended up on a list of those testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. True, steroids and tequila shooters are different, but do the guilty have to respond so differently? Hamilton owned up to his night of debauchery. He took full blame. Hamilton didn’t insult our intelligence, trying to pretend the photos were doctored or that somebody was impersonating him. In telling the truth, he showed he’s human, a flawed man battling a daily illness. The Rangers need him, and he’s finally begun to hit over the past week. He’s batting .265, with eight home runs and 37 RBIs. His off-the-field issues could have been a major distraction for a team knee-deep in the AL wild-card race. Instead, Hamilton addressed it head-on. What a novel concept.
AT ISSUE
Do Arroyo’s risks outweigh the rewards?
What: Cincinnati Reds pitcher Bronson Arroyo told USA Today that he uses supplements not approved by Major League Baseball, placing him in jeopardy of testing positive.
When: Arroyo spoke out last week and said he will continue taking his supplements. He admitted using andro and amphetamines in the past and said he would still be taking them if they were not banned.
Background: Arroyo, a former Boston Red Sox player, has always been a free spirit, willing to speak his mind on any topic at any time. He’s talking now because he’s convinced he’s one of the players on the 2003 list of those who tested positive during survey testing.
Renck’s take: Arroyo’s honesty is refreshing. Long-term health aside, he took andro because it helped him, made him feel like “a monster,” he said. Same with uppers. Not to recover from an injury (see lame defenses offered by Andy Pettitte, Fernando Viña, etc.). He took the drugs to make more money and help his team win — something people forget benefited owners and players. But for Arroyo to continue to take chances makes little sense, casts him as someone who needs to cheat to succeed or, in the case of this season, survive. As Rockies hitting instructor Don Baylor told me after Manny Ramirez tested positive this season, “You would have to be crazy to take stuff that isn’t approved.” Arroyo’s story needs telling. But if he fails a drug test now, it will be dismissed as the ramblings of an idiot.
Tracking the National League wild card
A look at upcoming schedules for the contenders:
1. Rockies: Need to sweep Washington as they prep for giant home series against Giants.
2. Giants: In the first stage of their longest road trip of season, 11 games in 11 days, an odyssey that ends at Coors Field.
3. Marlins: Have problems with the NL Central, so they must avoid a midweek stumble at Houston before traveling to Atlanta.
4. Braves: Marlins and Mets are teams they have played evenly all season. Need better than that now.
5. Cubs: A courtesy listing. Cubs aren’t a threat until they start playing defense.
