WASHINGTON — What we learned from the off-year elections: The president’s influence is limited, independents rule, issues trump ideology and, once more, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Also: Republicans can win — even if they lack a leader and their base is cracked. And this certainly isn’t the Democratic-friendly political environment of 2006 and 2008 when the party captured control of Congress and the White House.
The first Election Day of Barack Obama’s presidency was a big night for Republicans, who recaptured governorships in the swing state of Virginia and the Democratic stronghold of New Jersey.
Democrats won two races for vacant congressional seats, including one in upstate New York that had been long held by Republicans and that exposed a GOP divide.
So, what did we learn about politics, people and their priorities from the handful of races on Tuesday?
Obama’s power limited
“Yes, we can!” has turned into “Yes, we can — if we feel like it!” The broad coalition — minorities, young people, first-time voters, Republican crossovers and independents — that fueled Obama’s victory was a 2008 phenomenon; it can’t be counted on if the man himself is not on the ballot. Even though Obama personally implored his supporters to turn out in droves, voters rejected incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Democratic candidate R. Creigh Deeds in Virginia.
That could be a problem for Democratic lawmakers in swing states and conservative- to-moderate districts next fall because Obama won’t be on the ballot to drive up turnout. With Obama unable to guarantee their survival, what’s the incentive to back his agenda?
Independents rule
Voters who don’t claim a political party again proved their value by propelling Republicans to victory in Virginia and New Jersey one year after carrying Obama to the White House.
Last year, hope and change tilted them toward Democrats. This year, anger and frustration tilted them to Republicans. Democrats must figure out a way to bring independents back into their fold or risk huge losses next fall.
Still, Republicans must be mindful that independents who have moved toward the GOP since last fall could just as easily move back to the Democrats by next November.
Economy trumps all
Voters have spoken: Issues such as God, guns and gays take a back seat in a recession.
In Virginia, winner Bob McDonnell proved that a socially conservative Republican can win in a Democratic-trending state if the focus is on pocketbook issues. Deeds went after McDonnell on “values issues,” but the Republican didn’t take the bait. In New Jersey, Chris Christie — a moderate Republican — found success by sticking to local issues, taxes and jobs.
The winners de-emphasized social issues in favor of solutions for problems people faced in their lives, such as jobs, transportation and taxes.
In polling-place surveys, 85 percent in Virginia and 89 percent in New Jersey said they were worried about the economy — even though there are signs of recovery. But jobs aren’t yet returning, and trouble looms for Democrats if people still aren’t feeling improvement next fall.
2006, 2008 are gone
The warm and fuzzy feelings voters had for Democrats in back-to-back national elections are history.
George W. Bush as a political punching bag doesn’t work anymore; Democrats tried to use him against Christie and failed.
And now, after riding a wave of change to power, Democrats are incumbents facing plenty of anti-incumbent sentiment.
Of course, individual candidates matter, too, and in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats ran candidates whom voters just didn’t seem to like much.
Victories in both states have given Republicans a much- needed morale boost. And the wins proved that Republicans can find success if their candidates gravitate toward the middle and are responsive to the voters’ mood. That approach allowed the GOP to successfully woo independents.
But the defeat in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, after a nasty race in which the GOP-picked candidate dropped out under pressure from conservatives, served as yet another warning sign: The Republicans aren’t out of the woods either.
