With the second wave of H1N1 infections having crested in the United States, leading epidemiologists are predicting that the pandemic could end up ranking as the mildest since modern medicine began documenting influenza outbreaks.
Experts warn that influenza is notoriously unpredictable, but several recent analyses, including one released late Monday, indicate the death toll is likely to be far lower than the number of fatalities caused by past pandemics.
The predictions are being met with a mix of skepticism, relief and trepidation: Public health officials worry that people may get complacent about getting vaccinated.
The federally funded analysis was published online Monday by the journal PLoS Medicine. Based on data collected in New York City and Milwaukee, it indicates that the virus might directly cause 6,000 to 45,000 deaths by the end of the winter, with the final toll probably falling somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000.
A typical flu season is associated with an average of 36,000 deaths in the United States. The Washington Post
