Terrorism, recessions, wars — most people are glad the decade is over — certainly, Colorado has shared in the suffering. But for Colorado voters, the last 10 years have seen an extraordinary coming of age. The state has gone from a presidential campaign backwater with few candidate visits and little local advertising or attention, to hosting the 2008 Democratic National Convention and experiencing a tsunami of advertising and near gridlock amid candidates’ visits. Even Pueblo, with 100,000 people, hosted Barack Obama not once, but twice, in 2008.
Remembering back to 2000, when the nation was locked in partisan and constitutional battles over the presidential results, Colorado had one visit from the ultimate winner, George W. Bush, who easily carried the state. At that time, most major political offices were held by Republicans — the governor, both senators, four out of six Congress members and both houses of the state legislature.
Since that time, Colorado led the country in the shift to the Democratic Party. Beginning in 2004 with the election of the Salazar brothers, Ken and John, and capturing majority of both houses of the state legislature, the Democratic surge took hold. Now, Democrats control the major offices that Republicans held in 2000 — plus an additional congressional seat (five out of seven) — and delivered the state’s nine electoral votes to Obama.
Midway through the decade, the national Democratic Party, adopting similar strategies as Colorado Democrats and benefiting from President Bush’s problems, took the U.S. House and Senate in 2006. With their new momentum, they laid the groundwork for winning the presidential campaign and a filibuster-proof Senate in 2008.
The final political plot twist of the decade is that the Democrats’ dominance is now threatened. The 2010 election could see a revival of Colorado Republicans as the Democratic governor, a U.S. Senate seat, one congressional seat, and a number of state legislators appear in trouble. Colorado will enter 2010 as one of the leading battleground states, attracting the full attention of the nation’s political and media establishment. National Democrats are especially attentive as Colorado is considered a harbinger of the trends now shifting the country’s politics at an accelerated pace. If Democrats can’t hold Colorado, they likely can’t hold the country.
Bellwether state
Colorado has long had glimmers of being seen as a political pacesetter. The Almanac of American Politics first referenced Colorado’s role as a bellwether state in 1974 when it made note of the Dick Lamm and Gary Hart victories. Much of Colorado’s bellwether status is a reflection of its well-educated voters, its moderate politics, and its large bloc of unaffiliated and weak partisan voters. Although Colorado Democrats won some statewide races in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, the only presidential victory was in 1992, mostly due to Ross Perot grabbing 23 percent of the vote. They were never able to take a legislative house.
However, any momentum was choked off by a real Democratic drought that began in the early 1990s with dominance of fiscal and social conservatives in the Republican Party. An era of tax limits, minimal government and myriad of social issues, such as abortion restrictions, began. The zenith of the Republican decade was 2002 as Gov. Bill Owens won re-election by a whopping 63 percent, and voters sent Sen. Wayne Allard back to Washington, along with Bob Beauprez in the new 7th Congressional District.
But it wasn’t to last. The Republican run started to end earlier in Colorado than the rest of the nation as the economy declined due to the dot-com bust and as state budget deficits appeared. Incumbent Republicans were on the defensive and divided over the solutions. Colorado Democrats made their move mid-decade, and, by 2006, had taken the legislature, governorship and one congressional district.
The Colorado Democrats’ model has been well analyzed and was adopted by national Democrats in their 2006 election strategy. The winning formula centered on a massive grassroots campaign funded by new money — most of it outside the parties, which combined moderate and less partisan candidates armed with state-of-the-art voter targeting and message research. Of course, the campaigns had the benefit of good timing, keying off the collapse of the national Republican brand.
Battleground status
As we enter 2010, the next decade promises to keep Colorado politics in the national spotlight. The Democratic ticket is embattled, and Colorado’s political temper is always a blend of national and local conditions. At present, Washington, D.C., is of no help to Democrats as it was when President Bush hurt the Republicans from 2005 forward. The lingering bad economy, the continuation of two wars and the sudden terrorism news have all helped turn voters against D.C. and dropped Obama’s approval rating. Add to that the aggressive Democratic national agenda of health care, cap and trade, and immigration, and 2010 offers Republicans many opportunities. The past decade has been a struggle in many ways, but for Colorado voters, it was extraordinary.
Floyd Ciruli, founder of Ciruli Associates, is a Denver-based pollster and political analyst.
