Ravens (10-7) at Colts (14-2), 6:15 p.m., KCNC-4
Spread: Colts by 6 1/2
Hash marks: The Colts have won the past six meetings, and it’s the second time in the last three seasons they have faced each other in the division round. . . . The Ravens’ Joe Flacco is the first QB in league history to start every game in his first two seasons and lead his team to the playoffs in both of those years.
The Ravens win if: They get RB Ray Rice going. The first thing that happens to teams facing the Colts is they lose their sense of pace when trying to keep up with Peyton Manning and Co. So the Ravens have to establish Rice early and take the speed of the game down a few notches and limit Manning’s possessions as much as possible.
The Colts win if: They can overcome a run defense that finished the season ranked 24th in the league. In the last six weeks of the season, including the last two games of the regular season when they rested most of their regulars, the Colts surrendered at least 122 yards rushing five times and at least 200 yards rushing twice.
Ravens player on the spot: It’s players, really. But the Ravens’ safeties — Ed Reed and Dawan Landry — have to find a way to slow down Colts TE Dallas Clark. WR Reggie Wayne has bigger numbers, but Clark is consistently Manning’s fail-safe receiver. Clark is too fast for virtually every linebacker in the league and catches the ball as well as any receiver.
Colts player on the spot: When a team has as much riding on the quarterback as the Colts do, it has to be Manning. He calls the plays, sets the tempo and has more control of the way things turn out than any other quarterback in the league because of that. He’s had six 300-yard passing games in the postseason in his career.
Bet you didn’t know: Manning, having thrown on 62.7 percent of the Colts’ plays this season, was almost directing the most lopsided offense in the league. Only Arizona, having thrown on 62.9 percent of its offensive plays, had a worse pass-to-run ratio.
Key matchup: Ravens T Michael Oher vs. Colts DE Robert Mathis. Mathis, because of an injury, played only about 25 snaps when the two teams met earlier this season. Oher is quick off the ball and plays with savvy beyond his years, but Mathis is a freak of nature routinely able to run his 245-pound body past or over far bigger players across from him. Mathis has five sacks in his last five games against the Ravens.
The call: Colts 28-23
