Spread: Saints by 3 1/2
Hash marks: A nightmare for defensive coordinators, since the Saints (510 points) and the Vikings (470) were the two highest-scoring teams in the league. It is the fifth time in NFL history the top two scoring teams have met in a conference championship game.
The Vikings win if: They can keep the Saints from running the ball. New Orleans’ offense is more balanced than most folks believe. The Saints were seventh in the NFL in rushing attempts and tied for third in the league with 21 rushing touchdowns. They create gaps in the defense with the run game, and then punish it with play-action passes with the most accurate thrower in NFL history in Drew Brees — an NFL-record 70.6 percent completion rate this year — running the show.
The Saints win if: Their defense can survive the early rush. Some of the biggest plays Brett Favre has authored in postseason games have come early. Statistically, the Saints’ defense is the worst of the four teams remaining, but they cover for it by taking the ball away. They were third in the NFL in turnover margin at plus-11, and safety Darren Sharper tied for the league lead with nine interceptions.
Vikings player on the spot: Running back Adrian Peterson. He hasn’t averaged more than 4 yards per carry in a game when he’s had at least 10 carries since Nov. 15 vs. lowly Detroit. He had nine games this season where he averaged 3.9 yards per carry or less, and the Vikings will need more than that in this one. The more the Saints have the ball, the more trouble Brees can cause.
Saints player on the spot: Cornerback Jabari Greer. If Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams plays it straight in the secondary, Greer usually lines up on the defensive left, which would put him across from Vikings receiver Sidney Rice. And when Favre is looking for a big play, he looks for Rice, even when the defense may have the down-and-distance advantage. At 17.3 yards per catch on third down, Rice was the best in that category among starting receivers.
Bet you didn’t know: Favre will be 40 years, 106 days old on Sunday, and will become the oldest quarterback to start a conference championship game. He ranks second in postseason history in completions (453), yards passing (5,545) and passing touchdowns (43).
Key matchup: Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier vs. Brees. Accuracy to all points on the field and his willingness to put the ball in anyone’s hands — 10 different Saints caught a touchdown pass this season and 15 different players had a reception — make Brees one of the most difficult players to defend. Brees completed 73.6 percent of his passes between 0 and 15 yards this season and was a phenomenal 56.6 percent on attempts of at least 16 yards. Frazier has to give Brees something different to look at and not let him stand and pick away.
The call: Saints 31-28
Jeff Legwold, The Denver Post
