Many Nuggets fans were introduced to Dean Oliver last October, when I wrote a feature about Denver’s director of quantitative analysis — or, as Carmelo Anthony called him, “George Karl’s brains.”
Dean-O is the numbers man — the guy whose native tongue is statistics. In October, Oliver unveiled his Holy Grail, “the four factors” of basketball:
1. Free throws made per field goals attempted.
2. Turnovers per possession.
3. Offensive rebounding percentage.
4. Effective field-goal percentage (which gives 50 percent more credit to 3-point shots than normal field-goal percentage).
So now that we’re heading down the stretch of the season, I thought it would be fun to catch up with Oliver and see how the Nuggets factor in with the four factors.
“It’s painting a picture,” Oliver explained. “These are management numbers — overall, we’re a winning team. And offensively we’re quite good, and defensively we’re a little bit better than average. And then you look at the reasons why, and there’s trade-off involved in understanding those. And I think we’re happy with our trade-off.”
Just like last season, when the Nuggets advanced to the conference finals, they’re again No. 1 in the league in free throws made per field goals attempted (the ol’ FTMPFGA). Indeed, it’s an impressive stat — the Nuggets attempt 29.7 free throws per 100 field goals attempted, best in the business.
“When people talk about how teams can get hot and cold shooting from the field, if you get to the free-throw line that much, you can stop streaky shooting,” Oliver said. “It’s a reflection of George’s coaching.” (Karl preaches attack mode to his team, notably Anthony, who has become one of the league’s best at getting to the line.)
As for turnovers per possession — Denver creates the 11th-fewest offensively and is ninth in forcing turnovers, both respectable numbers.
Now, the offensive rebounding percentage is offensive.
Not only is Denver 17th from an offensive standpoint, but it’s 24th from a defensive standpoint — in other words, 23 teams do better at preventing offensive rebounds.
“We don’t give up a lot of easy shots,” Oliver contended. “Our effective field goal is 13th, and that’s a big thing. That’s kind of nice to have (we’ll get to that in a moment). If you’re keeping guys from making a lot of shots, then the defensive rebounding percentage or opposing offensive rebounding isn’t as important.”
With the aforementioned effective field-goal percentage, Denver is 13th from the defensive end — only 12 teams are better at reducing an opponent’s effective field-goal percentage. Offensively, the Nuggets are seventh, a standout number of 52 percent, about 2 percent behind No. 1 Phoenix. (The other five teams in front of them are also top-notch squads in Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, Utah and Toronto — OK, four of the other five.)
One also might recall that Oliver’s numbers helped influence Denver to nab a point guard in last season’s draft.
“Certainly, we’re happy with the way the process went,” Oliver said of Ty Lawson, who cracked Denver’s rotation and averages 9.0 points per game. “We got what we were looking for.”
Making a move.
The Western Conference playoff teams could be divided into two groups — the top four (Lakers, Nuggets, Mavs and Jazz) and the next four (Thunder, Suns, Spurs and Blazers). If I’m Denver, the team that scares me the most is Phoenix. The Suns have won two of the three games against the Nuggets (Denver’s last game of the regular season is there), and the Suns make for some tricky matchups.
But it’s possible Phoenix could, dare I say, rise into the top four in the coming weeks. The Suns play Portland tonight, but then their next six are against the Warriors, Knicks, Wolves, Bulls, Nets and Pistons. Yes, all of those except the New York game are on the road. But still.
Battle tested?
It’s hard to think the Lakers could fall from the top spot in the West. But while Cleveland, Orlando, Dallas and Denver are also playing (for the most part) at a high level, the Lakers are about to embark on their toughest stretch of the season — after today’s gimme against Washington, seven of the Lakers’ next eight are against teams with winning records, the eighth game here in Denver on April 8.
Air owner.
This past week, Michael Jordan officially became the owner of the Charlotte Bobcats, which, of course, is really cool for the league. In a TNT interview, Bobcats forward Stephen Jackson was asked if he calls Jordan “M.J.” or “Boss.” “I call him M.J.,” Jackson said, “but the other day I called him Boss when he told me I had to average more points.”
Spotlight on …
The Orlando Magic
With the Kobe-LeBron Nike puppet ads already in the can, the Orlando Magic spoiled the Finals fun by stomping on the James Gang and advancing to the NBA Finals against Bryant and the Lakers.
Again, the Cavs are the No. 1 team in the East, looking (arguably) stronger than last year with the addition of Antawn Jamison and Shaquille O’Neal.
But is it possible we’ll see another Finals Magic show instead of a puppet show?
The No. 2 Magic has lost just five games since Jan. 25 and only once in March, a month when the Magic beat the Lakers, the Spurs and the Heat — at Miami last Thursday, Orlando’s second game of a back-to-back.
“They shoot the 3-ball so well, and you catch them on those nights where Dwight (Howard) is getting 30-18 (points-rebounds), it can make for a long night,” Nuggets all-star Chauncey Billups said. “You’ve got to take one of them away — push them off the 3-point line or play Dwight one-on-one and let him have a big night. You’ve got to pick your poison.”
There is some consternation about Vince Carter in the small forward role and Rashard Lewis’ 10-year lows in scoring and shooting.
But Billups insisted that Orlando has “arguably” the best bench in the NBA, and unlike last season, the Magic now has some experience too.
Benjamin Hochman, The Denver Post
