WASHINGTON — Florida politics are rarely dull. But Thursday, they entered another dimension — the third one.
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision to bolt the Republican Party and run for the U.S. Senate as an independent promises to transform the state into a battleground for competing electoral themes that are likely to echo nationwide. The three- way fight will pit conservative principles against anti-Washington sentiment, and the outcome could tilt the near-term fortunes of the GOP.
Who’s an outsider now?
It remains a question whether Crist will be able to raise enough money to sustain a viable campaign through the summer, but his move gives an ironic twist to the race: The sitting governor is positioning himself as the outsider — the role originally claimed by his Republican rival, Marco Rubio.
“Our political system is broken,” Crist said at an event in St. Petersburg, Fla., Thursday. Voters, he said, “are tired of things not getting done for them.”
Rubio, whose shooting-star challenge to Crist was fueled in part by Tea Party activist anger, now finds himself with the mantle of the established, endorsed Republican candidate, brandishing seals of approval from certified party stalwarts such as Dick Cheney.
Meanwhile Crist, now free of having to court a right wing that has long mistrusted him, can position himself as someone beyond the two-party framework — a panacea for the partisan gridlock that has paralyzed Washington and frustrated voters nationwide.
Before Wednesday, Rubio seemed assured of a victory over Crist in the GOP primary to the point that some expected Crist to drop out of the race entirely, leaving Rubio to enter the general election as the favorite against the likely Democratic candidate, Rep. Kendrick Meek.
Now Meek can sit back as Crist and Rubio potentially tear each other to bits all the way to Election Day, splitting possible Republican votes and providing the Democrat with a possible path to victory that didn’t seem to exist before.
It all promises to make Florida perhaps the most closely watched and entertaining Senate race in the nation.
Rubio faces a difficult choice. Does he allow Crist to claim the center in this most divided of states, or does he abandon the activists who propelled his insurgent candidacy and move toward moderation? If he sticks to his guns, his candidacy will serve as a test of whether a strongly conservative Republican can beat both a moderate one and a Democrat in a straight-up contest.
Crist’s strategy is simple: He enjoys the greatest name recognition among the three candidates. If he can remain afloat until November, he can hope that voters simply choose the person they know best.
Measuring the money
But Rubio and Meek will have ample opportunity to paint Crist as an opportunist who pursued political ambition over principle.
And they will have money.
Rubio, now the party torchbearer, can fully benefit from the national Republican fundraising machine.
Meek will be bolstered by a Democratic establishment that will desperately want to exploit the GOP rift and reclaim a Senate seat currently held by a Republican, George LeMieux.
Chris Ingram, a Republican strategist in Tampa, thinks if Crist can survive a likely dry spell over the summer, donors will move toward him if he is still a factor.
“A lot of business interests don’t care if you’re a Republican, Democrat, independent or whatever,” he said. “If polls show him in the race, people will open up their checkbooks.”
