A National Academy of Sciences study released this morning quantifies potential impacts of climate change – linking water in rivers, crop yields and wildfire damage to specific temperature increases.
For example, for every 1.8 degrees of warming, Colorado can expect 5-10 percent less water in the Arkansas and Rio Grande rivers, the study found.
The study on likely future effects of climate change also anticipates 5-10 percent less total rain in Colorado and other southwestern states. And forest fires are considered likely to devour 3 times more land for each 1.8 degrees of warming .
The study represents the nation’s most recent effort to pull together a vast body of scientific data on climate change – and to look beyond how climate change may be happening to anticipate specific impacts depending on temperature change.
Some leaders and policy-makers briefed on the study found it gloomy, said Susan Solomon, a Colorado-based senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who led the effort by a 15-member team from around the country.
However, “when people have good information, they are going to make better choices,” Solomon said. “It is good to know.”
The report was sponsored by the Energy Foundation and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The National Academy of Sciences includes the National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council. These are independent, nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology, and health policy advice under an 1863 congressional charter.
Scientists who conducted the study served pro bono as volunteers. They were chosen based on their expertise and experience and had to satisfy the academies’ conflict-of-interest standards. The study report went through a peer review.
(Bruce Finley: 303.954.1700 or bfinley@denverpost.com)
