Denver Post sports columnist Woody Paige posts Woody’s Mailbag on Thursdays.
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Woody, can you give us your prediction of the AFC West records this year? Here is mine: San Diego 12-4, Oakland 9-7, Kansas City 6-10, Denver 6-10.
— Gary Duncan, Loveland
Woody Paige: Gary, I know breaths are being held all over the world waiting for my annual stupid prediction. I picked 5-11 for Broncos last year and was obviously was off by three. (The point was they wouldn’t be very good and wouldn’t make playoffs. The defense was better than I thought, and the offense was about what I believed it would be. I never felt they could win all three division road games, but then they lost all three division home games.)
I’ve had good years, and bad, given that I’ve been picking the Broncos’ record since 1974. Who knows, really, with this bunch? Not for some big buildup, but I want to see the Broncos’ quasi-first unit against Pittsburgh on Sunday night in the Steelers’ home game in Denver (you know the place will be filled with former Pittsburghianites) before deciding, and, still, we won’t really learn a lot.
Maybe I’m just putting it off because there are so many injuries and uncertainty. Kyle Orton has played well against vanilla defenses, but he’s got to prove to you, me and everyone else what he can do when teams actually put pressure on him and that young (and hurt) offensive line.
I’m thinking the Chargers are off a bit (with problems defensively, the Vincent Jackson situation, a rookie running back and a coach I don’t trust). I would guess 11-5 or 10-6.
Oakland will be improved. I liked the Raiders’ draft a bunch, Jason Campbell is a serious upgrade at quarterback, and the defense should be outstanding in all three areas. Your pick of 9-7 could be exactly right.
Kansas City stinks. Maybe five wins, maybe six.
Thinking out loud … Don’t hold me to this just quite yet (I will make my announcement here next week, and then you can breathe again), but that Jacksonville game is critical. The Jags aren’t any good, but that’s a trap.
So perhaps we’ll see losses at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, at Baltimore (of course), at San Diego and at Oakland.
Matt Leinart can’t play. Arizona could go either way. The Chiefs could be two victories for the Broncos. I’m thinking the Broncos split with San Diego and Oakland, certainly beat Stan Kroenke’s Rams and Gary Kubiak’s Texans and lose to the Colts and kick the Mariners, I mean Seahawks.
That leaves the game in London. So the 49ers and the Jags are, oddly enough, the swing games. It’s actually not that bad a schedule. But I think Mike Klis, who covers the team for us full time, is right. It could be anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6. That last home game against San Diego could be a difference maker, but don’t sleep on the Raiders.
Woody, can you explain the Kyle Orton contract extension? Does this smack of desperation to you? Was this the plan all along, or is Josh McDaniels getting burned by his own bad choices — trading for Brady Quinn, drafting Tim Tebow, etc.?
— Robert Ferrau, Yorktown, Va.
WP: Robert, Josh McDaniels told me when I asked why, “We will have three quarterbacks under contract for next season.” Smack of desperation? No. Here’s what I believe and know: McDaniels wanted to push and motivate Orton with the acquisition of Quinn. Then Tebow was there, and McDaniels fell in love with him. He had two young quarterbacks, and Orton could either get with the program or get gone. Orton got with the program.
Meanwhile, Quinn has been basically what he was in Cleveland — a disappointment. And Tebow just didn’t come along fast enough in learning the system, and the Broncos don’t have enough information about him in actual games, and they don’t feel he can start yet.
Orton played well in scrimmages and the exhibitions and overcame the concerns Josh and others had about him, and the Broncos could tie him up for one year for a $5 million guarantee, which they don’t consider much in today’s pro football. It’s not a long-term deal, and it’s not surprising. (If it had been three or four years, I would have been shocked, and it would have smacked of desperation.)
As I wrote the other day, the average Colorado life of a Broncos starting quarterback is 2.7 years. Orton will get his 2.7 years.
Remember that the Broncos liked Bubby Brister at the end of John Elway’s career and intended to start him the next year. But he didn’t learn enough of the playbook and didn’t turn out to be much when he was elevated to starting quarterback. So Mike Shanahan made a last-minute switch to Brian Griese. That didn’t work out so well. The Broncos went 6-10.
But there is this: Jay Cutler, Chris Simms and Tom Brandstater all are gone. Is the Orton, Quinn, Tebow trio better than those three? You answer that question for yourself.
Woody: I have a technical question. I’ve heard “so-and-so is a three-technique player” or “so-and-so can play the five technique.” How many different techniques are recognized and what are people talking about in conversations of this nature? Thanks.
— Mark, San Diego
WP: Mark, you and I should get a hobby, collect butterflies or take up handball. The various techniques, as they are called, refer to where the defensive linemen position themselves and their responsibilities. For instance, the defensive end can line up straight-on with an offensive tackle, or on his outside shoulder, and in the gap between the tackle and the tight end.
The ends and the nose tackle in the 3-4 — and I’ll stick to that since the Broncos are now playing 3-4 — must decide whether to stuff the inside lanes to tackle the running back or force him outside, where there should be help from the outside linebackers. They can try to shove the guards and tackles back to collapse the pocket, or, in a gap, beat the guard or tackle and get to the quarterback.
Then there’s the possibility that the outside linebacker will line up at the end of the line, opposite the tight end, and when the tight end stays to block, try to whip past him, and if he goes out for a pass, blitz from that vacated area.
The defensive lineman also can hold his position and watch the play develop, and the inside backers blitz through the hole when the guard comes at the defensive lineman. The zone blitz call also will determine where linemen line up, trying to create an overload where even the linebacker or the cornerback can be free coming through.
There actually are as many as 8 or 9 techniques. The nose tackle shifts at the last moment from nose-to-nose with the center to the right side, the end shifts outside the offensive tackle, and an outside linebacker also is coming outside the tackle. It’s all about matchups, beating your man, figuring what the play is (say, you have one technique on a running play, another on a short pass, another on third and long).
If you weren’t confused before, you are now. Sometime in a game watch how the defensive lineman shift just before the play, see where they line up (head-up against an offensive lineman, on the shoulder, in the gap on the inside of an offensive lineman or outside), and you’ll have a better understanding.
Most people just watch the quarterback. I spend a lot of time watching the offensive tackle. He’ll tell you by what he does what the play is. Watch matchups in person between the wideout and a cornerback.
It’s a more interesting game if you vary the area of the field you concentrate on every once in a while. But, truthfully, most people who mention one and two and three techniques couldn’t balance a checkbook.
Woody: I’m a lifetime Broncos fan here in the Buffalo area. The amount of whining and negativity I read from Bronco fans on The Post’s website is quite disturbing. I’m curious: Is this the norm? It’s annoying. More important, is it worth me spending hundreds of dollars to purchase the NFL Sunday Ticket to watch every Broncos game this year?
— Tom, Buffalo, N.Y.
WP: Tom, the Internet has increased the whining, the negativity, the complaints and the comments 10,000-fold since I got into this business. The only outlet fans had years ago was to write me a letter, leave a phone call with a TV sports anchor, tell their buddies how they hated a player or a coach, boo at games or stop going. Mostly, the whining and negativity came from me as a columnist.
Now, I’m the tamest man in the room, and I haven’t changed my approach to having an opinion. You can e-mail, text, write a blog, comment at the end of every story in the newspaper, or start a website. Anyone who can type — spelling and grammar and punctuation aren’t necessary — can express an opinion hundreds of different ways every day.
It’s the norm now in every NFL and college city. People can have their say, and they can be very nasty. Sports were supposed to be a diversion. It has become a bloodletting passion. We are no different than the Romans, for whom a stadium was built so they could release their pent-up frustrations in life toward gladiators, religious groups, animals and fighters, and not toward the leaders of the city, the state and the realm.
Most of the time, tickets (in the form of coins) were given to the commoners. Imagine if they had the Internet then. People in Buffalo have a lot of cold nights and cold beer, and they can now express their feelings and anguish about athletes, coaches, owners and, yes, columnists, and they feel so much better.
By the way, I love the NFL RedZone, which I believe is available via your cable provider or Dish Network (but not DirecTV). Get that. You get to see every scoring drive, and don’t have to watch third-and-14.
Woody: Jonathan Herrera reminds me of Junior Gilliam, the old Brooklyn and Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman. Gilliam was a master at the hit-and-run and moving baserunners along. Batting behind Maury Wills, Gilliam helped Wills steal a then-record 104 bases in 1962. I think the Rockies need to find a meaningful role for Herrera next season because he improves the chemistry of the top half of the lineup. What moves to you think the Rockies should make in the off-season to improve their overall infield performance? Have you heard about any first-base prospects?
— Alan Katz, Denver
WP: Alan, you and I may be the only people here who remember Jim Gilliam. The hit-and-run is a lost art. The Rockies, for instance, have no idea about moving baserunners over. They’re too busy trying to launch the ball into outer space. Thank you for giving me the chance to say I was wrong about Herrera, to a point.
I wrote when he came up he didn’t belong in the majors … yet. Several — well, more than several — reminded me of that when he went on the hitting streak, got his average over .300 and played stellar defense at second. They didn’t write back when National League opponents figured him out and started working him outside with movement, and he was sent back to the minors.
But he could take over at second for Clint Barmes next year, although I believe Eric Young Jr. will be very much in the mix. Of all the problems the Rockies have, Herrera is among the least important.
Jim Tracy told the media if they had any solutions to the Rockies’ problems on the road, he’d be happy to accept them. The ball still does not break here as it does at sea level, and the ballpark is so big. So the Rockies get better pitches to hit, and there’s more room for them to fall in the outfield.
This is not a patient team. Nobody ever is at Denver. (The Yankees play longer games than any other team because they make opposing pitchers go deep into the count; Todd Helton is the ONLY Rockies player who does that.)
On the road the Rockies are seeing stuff that breaks more, and they have smaller outfields to work to.
I have always maintained, and Dante Bichette once agreed with me, that the day the Rockies begin to play on the road, they take batting practice from a recently retired breaking-ball pitcher (or some guy who was cut from the minors, but can curve and slide), and not just hit those pumpkins the batting practice coaches and staff throws up there.
On the road, the Rockies also need to force pitchers to throw more pitches, take more pitches, get deeper into the count and wait for a fastball. They look confused, uncertain and silly at the plate on the road. You can’t have a difference of .300 at home and .220 on the road and expect to win every year. You’ve got to get the road average up, or play small ball with people like Herrera, bunt, bunt ’em over, move em over, hit behind the runner, give yourself up, steal more bases and forget about trying to hit the ball out.
This team doesn’t hit enough home runs as it is. You can waste great pitching performances by getting one, two runs a game on the road. If you and I, Alan, can figure it out, why not the Rockies?
By the way, there is a pitching machine that will throw breaking balls up to 90 miles an hour. Why don’t they use that on the road during the opening series of a trip?
Woody: Do you think this will be Todd Helton’s last season? If so, who is going to replace him?
— Stevie boy, Denver
Steve “My Man” boy: My answers are: No, and nobody. Todd is not going to leave that much money on the table, even though he’s a very proud man, and will become the first player whose number will be retired by the Rockies (although I believe all four of the Blake Street Bombers deserve the honor, and I will go to my grave pushing for that unsuccessfully).
I believe he’ll try again during the offseason to improve the condition of his back and play one more year. The Rockies have no player in the upper minors to replace him. The Brad Hawpe experiment did not work, and now Hawpe is gone. So they’ve got to hope Helton can perform at a higher level or be a part-time backup, pinch hitter and defensive replacement for a year. The owners are not going to pay him off.
Let me run something up the flagpole, and see if it flies. What if the Rockies reconfigured Helton’s contract one more time — pay him one more year at full salary and pay him, say, $2 million a year for 10 years to be a radio-TV commentator (he’s actually very funny, and, of course, being from the University of Tennessee, very astute), a hitting coach in spring training and as a rover in the minors, especially with kids? He can also be an adviser to general manager Dan O’Dowd and a man who represents the team in the community.
Helton has a chance at the Hall of Fame, and one or two more good years might get him over the top. They should have made the deal for Jorge Cantu, but the ownership refused to reward the Rockies’ fans for turning out in gigantic numbers this year. So I feel strongly that Todd will try one more season, and if he can’t make a go of it, retire after 2011.
Woody: My regards to a columnist that never rests! The only Broncos game I had a chance to take my family to see was the freezing Bills game, Shanahan’s last game before being fired (maybe I wasn’t the only one with cold feet at the stadium). Now I’m taking my wife to a Halloween party at Wembley Stadium. What should I watch out for? Am I going to see Tim Tebow? Is there a chance to see John Elway around? Thanks from a distant fan.
— Lysias Boaventura, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil
WP: Lysias, thank you, but I’m about to go take a nap and rest. Long day, long mailbag, long answers, long in the tooth I am. You are a fan, if you’ll travel from Brazil to London for a football game. Dress more warmly this time. Those early nights in London get cold.
Truth is, the Broncos decided to go to London a day later because they found out that the sun sets earlier than they thought in England that time of the year, and the cricket field where they are practicing doesn’t have lights. (Cricketers always quit at tea time.)
What should you watch out for? All over London, on the corners of the streets, is painted this warning: “Look Other Way.” Americans go over there, cross the street after looking to their left instead of their right, and get hit by cars. The other thing to watch for is “Mind the Gap,” a warning announced in tube (subway) stations. There is a big gap between the train cars and the waiting area.
Now that you’ve got that in mind, and won’t die before the game, do not take cabs. They take forever, and the tube will get you there is half the time. Don’t eat at English restaurants. Eat at the unlicensed Indian restaurants. They have the best food. Eat the fish and chips (see above) out of a newspaper (maybe the last use for a sports page in the world).
Go to Piccadilly Circus, where there is a great fountain. Once, when I was there during the summer, there were dozens of teenagers cooling off in the water, and I told my companion: “Look. The Fountain of Youth.” Yes, she reacted the same way all of you are. I can’t help myself.
Go to the Sherlock Holmes pub. There is no Holmes apartment on Baker Street (He wasn’t a real person!), but there is a pub that features a room that looks like what Holmes’ sitting room would have looked like, and the beer is good (although lukewarm. Can’t those people realize that beer, not feet, should be cold?).
Take the Chunnel to Paris for the day. Four and a half hours each way, and it’s a great ride. You can go early in the morning, and come back that night, and hop aboard the bus in Paris and see everything.
Take the red bus around London and check out all the sites. Anybody going, do not, under any circumstances, miss the Winston Churchill World War II Bunker. It’s one of the most interesting historical sites in the world, and is just as it was during the stormy moments of the war. It’s only a couple of blocks from Big Ben (the clock, not the QB).
And say hello to Bond, James Bond. There is a great place to go for Halloween called London Dungeon. It’s a small amusement museum all about the Great Fires, Jack the Ripper and a bunch of other old, scary events that will get you in the mood for Halloween.
The game might be frightening, too. The Broncos once played on Halloween in Indy, and it was Fright Night indeed. Yes, you’ll see Tim Tebow, a modern-day Tiny Tim out of Scrooge, and he’ll probably say to you: “God bless us every one.” He’ll play some, I bet, but I’m not paying your air fare if I’m wrong.
John Elway will be there all week helping to market (promote) the game, and people in London are smart enough (see above) to remember when John played there for the Broncos in 1987 against the Rams. (The Broncos lost 28-27.)
The Broncos and the 49ers played in Tokyo (in an exhibition) in 1995, and the two starting quarterbacks were Elway and Steve Young. The Broncos won 9-7. I’ll tell John to look for you. And if the Broncos lose this time, Blame It on Rio. I’m out of here for a rest.
Woody Paige first joined The Denver Post in 1981 as a sports columnist. , or .
