WASHINGTON — Today, the last big primary election day this year, could be the biggest test yet of Tea Party influence, as the conservative grassroots movement appears within striking distance of denying veteran moderate U.S. Rep. Michael Castle the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in Delaware.
So far this year, Tea Party activists have turned voter anger against Washington into a purge of Republicans they regard as too cozy with Democrats and toppled GOP establishment Senate favorites around the country.
The insurgents are on the move again in Delaware. Defeating Castle would be their biggest coup yet, a loss that would rock the political world seven weeks before November’s congressional and gubernatorial elections.
Castle has served Delaware since 1966 as a state legislator, lieutenant governor, governor and, since 1993, the state’s only congressman, usually winning his dozen statewide races by huge margins. The state Republican Party establishment is aggressively boosting his Senate candidacy to fill the seat held until 2009 by Vice President Joe Biden and since then by Democrat Ted Kaufman.
A poll last weekend found Castle slightly behind media consultant Christine O’Donnell, a perennial candidate who was barely known even a month ago and whose personal financial record is a patchwork of debts and delinquent taxes. Public Policy Polling, which surveyed 668 likely Republican voters Saturday and Sunday, found the race too close to call, with O’Donnell ahead of Castle by 3 percentage points. The poll had an error margin of 3.8 percentage points.
O’Donnell, who resembles former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in appearance and speaking style, has fired up the conservative base with support from Palin, the California-based Tea Party Express, which has pledged $250,000 to her campaign, and Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C.
If Castle lost, he’d be the latest in a growing list of mainstream GOP candidates toppled by Tea Party challenges.
Analysts see O’Donnell benefiting from the same anger that has triggered other Republican insurgencies.
“This is a revolution of the haves,” said Ross Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in New Jersey. “Most of these Tea Party people are not poor people, but they are angry and worried.”
Many have never accepted President Barack Obama.
“They’ve had questions about his legitimacy all along,” Baker said.
They’re also concerned that government keeps growing and running deeper debt.
Two other states will be watched Tuesday for evidence of Tea Party influence in Republican primaries.
In New Hampshire, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte had been a strong favorite for the GOP Senate nomination, but polls now show lawyer Ovide Lamontagne gaining; he has attracted some Tea Party support. In Maryland, little-known investor Brian Murphy is challenging former Gov. Robert Ehrlich for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.
Also holding primaries today are Wisconsin, Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts and the District of Columbia, where City Council Chairman Vincent Gray is challenging incumbent Democratic Mayor Adrian Fenty. Gray leads in polls in the heavily Democratic city, where winning the primary usually means a general election victory.
