SEOUL, South Korea — The South Korean military on Friday wrapped up three days of intense land and sea exercises as officials tried to decipher what a third nuclear test by North Korea predicted for next year would mean to already brittle relations between the two nations.
In recent weeks, tensions on the peninsula have been among their highest levels since a truce ended the direct combat of the Korean War in 1953.
Northern artillery shelled the South’s Yeonpyeong Island on Nov. 23, killing four people, and South Korea followed with two live-fire training exercises despite threats from North Korea that it could retaliate if it felt threatened.
In recent days, one top North Korean official called the latest drills a “grave military provocation” and even threatened a “sacred” nuclear war if the South attacked.
Third nuclear test?
A report released Friday predicting that the North could carry out a third nuclear test as early as next year also did little to erase the growing unease. North Korea carried out tests in 2006 and 2009.
“There is a possibility of North Korea carrying out its third nuclear test to seek improvement in its nuclear weapons production capability, keep the military tension high and promote Kim Jong-Un’s status as the next leader,” said the report by a South Korean Foreign Ministry institute, referring to Northern leader Kim Jong-Il’s youngest son and presumed successor.
Another report released Thursday warned that the rising tensions between North and South Korea have “created a serious risk that any further provocation might turn into a wider conflict.”
The study by the nonprofit International Crisis Group said that while the North would lose a war against its southern neighbor, “Seoul is constrained in retaliating forcefully because it has so much to lose” economically and politically.
“Pyongyang, isolated from global markets and domestic political forces, does not face such constraints,” the report added. “Rather, the disparity permits it to provoke the South at very little cost, even while falling behind in the overall balance of conventional forces.”
Massive display of force
Dressed in green military fatigues, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Thursday visited a base near the heavily guarded demilitarized zone that separates the two nations, watching a massive display of force by his tanks and fighter jets.
On Friday, the South Korean navy ended the military drills with exercises off the nation’s less-tense eastern border.
Lee has been under pressure to get tough on North Korea ever since a torpedo sunk a South Korean warship in March.
The North was widely blamed for the attack, which killed 46 men on board. After last month’s artillery bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island, Seoul replaced its defense minister and has taken a more aggressive defense posture.
“I had thought that we could safeguard peace if we had patience, but that wasn’t the case,” Lee told the troops during his visit, his office reported.
Any surprise attack would be met with a “merciless” response, he added.
