Among the dining trends that Denver restaurant consultant John Imbergamo predicts for 2011: more Vietnamese food on menus. Fewer new burger joints. More stringent health inspections. And, he hopes, a better relationship between online citizen-critics and the restaurateurs they write about.
Imbergamo should know. Restaurant Hospitality magazine, a leading trade publication, recently named him its top predictor. His list of predictions for 2010 — including more coupons, more local foods and more community-building efforts among chefs — proved more accurate than any other list surveyed by the publication.
If you ask Imbergamo, the writing for many of his calls was on the wall. The rise of coupons and other deals, he said in a recent phone conversation, “was so rampant over the past few years, it wasn’t difficult to predict.” Ditto on the continuing trend to more local ingredients: “Not tough to figure out.”
One prediction Imbergamo stumbled on: expanded menus for kids. “It just didn’t happen. I thought it would,” he said.
But 2010 is already old news. Imbergamo now has a list of predictions for 2011.
Imbergamo sees no end to the local-ingredients movement. In fact, he said, it will gain steam. “It’s no longer a point of differentiation between restaurants,” he said. “People expect local ingredients now, like clean bathrooms. I think in 2011, if the stuff you’re eating isn’t grown in the flower pot in the center of your table, it’s not local enough.”
But, Imbergamo warned, restaurants better be able to back up the claims. “We’ll start to see ‘gotcha’ stuff happening. We’ll have people going through the trash at locavore restaurants and finding Sysco boxes, and reporting it,” he said.
Imbergamo also sees a growing role for social media. “We’ll all be Twittering and Foursquaring our butts off,” he said. “Whether it will be any more focused, I don’t know.”
The volatility between restaurants and citizen- critics on websites such as Yelp and Urbanspoon will continue, but Imbergamo foresees a positive twist. “Restaurateurs read that stuff,” he said. “Perhaps the interaction will improve.”
Health is another buzzword for the coming year. “We’ll see more chatter about healthy eating. Whether that translates into demand, I don’t know.”
In Denver, Imbergamo sees a steakhouse status quo. “The most interesting thing about the mix in Denver is the relentless opening of steakhouses. I’m amazed at that, and they seem to do well.” But burgers may have peaked. “I don’t think we’ll see as many openings (this) year.”
Thanks to a new food-safety bill and the success of visible health initiatives across the country, Imbergamo predicts more interest in menu labeling in Denver. But a ban on trans fats, like New York City is working to institute, probably won’t happen here. “I don’t think so,” he said.
Competition for customer dollars will increase, and restaurants will respond. “I think there’s a chance for a creative demand-driven price system. Look at parking. During a Wednesday in the winter, it costs five bucks to park downtown, but during a Rockies game it’s $25. Maybe a system goes into place for restaurants that would give people incentive to come into the restaurant at less desirable times so that those nights are not lost revenue.”
Whether or not it happens this year, Imbergamo foresees competition for Web-based reservations giant . “I do see somebody building a competitive system to take on OpenTable. They’re the thousand-pound gorilla, but someone will find a way to do it better, or cheaper.”
Cuisines on the rise include Vietnamese and Thai. “Bahn mi sandwiches and other, similar Vietnamese and Thai stuff is filtering its way in,” Imbergamo said. “We’re seeing green papaya salads on more menus.”
One thing that won’t fade away: bacon. “All the trend lists say they’re tired of bacon,” Imbergamo said. “But I think you’re going to see bacon rear its ugly head for some time to come.”
Tucker Shaw: 303-954-1958, tshaw@denverpost.com
