Selection Sunday’s unveiling of the 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament is a week out, and now is when the arithmetic of the bracket begins to feel like a cruel game of musical chairs. So many teams, not enough slots.
The tournament expanded from 65 to 68 teams this year, though the number of automatic qualifiers remains the same: the champions of the 31 Division I conferences. That leaves 37 at-large bids to fill.
About 25 to 28 teams are shoo-ins for an at-large invitation, leaving nine to 12 spots up for grabs heading into wall-to-wall conference tournament action this week. There appears to be about 20 contenders for those dozen or so slots.
To keep hopes alive, those teams need a big week to avoid an early exit in their respective conference tournaments. That’s why March Madness truly begins this week.
This much is certain: Denver’s Pepsi Center will get eight teams for second- and third-round games March 17 and 19.
Which eight will come to Denver remains very much up in the air, rarefied at that.
Don’t look now, but Northern Colorado (19-10, 13-3 Big Sky) has the best chance of reaching the NCAA Tournament among Front Range schools. That’s because the Bears won the Big Sky regular season and get to host the league’s semifinals and championship tournament games at Butler-Hancock Sports Pavilion. They are 12-0 at home and are just two victories away from playing in the Division I NCAA Tournament for the first time.
Colorado’s hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2003 diminished substantially Wednesday night with a road loss to Big 12 cellar-dweller Iowa State. But some “bracketologists,” including highly respected Joe Lunardi of ESPN, believe the Buffs (19-12, 8-8 Big 12) who beat Nebraska 67-57 to end their regular season Saturday, have a shot.
Colorado State (19-11, 9-7 MWC), which lost its regular-season finale Saturday at San Diego State, is also a longshot after a recent three-game losing streak and would need a superb MWC Tournament to have a chance.
The Big 12 and Mountain West Tournaments are this week.
Lavin does more than talk
Before Steve Lavin accepted the challenge of rebuilding St. John’s last spring, seemingly a whole generation of college basketball fans knew him more for his seven years as a high-profile commentator on ABC and ESPN.
Lavin, 46, had not coached since being fired at UCLA after the 2002-03 season and some questioned the hire.
Eyebrows were raised when St. John’s lost an early, nonleague game to unheralded Fordham. But the Red Storm (20-10, 12-6) has turned things around in the meat grinder known as the Big East Conference. How about being ranked No. 15 in both major polls?
Lavin guided UCLA to five NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 appearances during a six-year period from 1997-2002, joining Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski as the only coaches to accomplish the feat during that span. Lavin’s first Bruins team (1996-97) reached the Elite Eight, and he was voted national rookie coach of the year.
But fairly or unfairly, Lavin had gained the reputation as being more of a recruiter than a coach. This season has been all about coaching, with Lavin inheriting a group that went 6-12 in the Big East last year.
St. John’s had become almost irrelevant in the national college basketball landscape since legendary coach Lou Carnesecca retired in 1992.
According to The New York Times, Lavin told his team, “Life will never get better than this” to calm them down during a timeout in the 60-59 victory over then-No. 4 Pittsburgh on Feb. 19.
“This is Madison Square Garden,” he added. “You’ve got this place electrified, and you’re playing with your best friends. This is fun!”
OK. Lavin can be forgiven if he still sounds like a TV color guy. But it’s working.
Ohio State’s lack of depth
Coach Thad Matta typically uses just seven players in a game — five starters plus two freshman reserves, guard Aaron Craft and forward Deshaun Thomas.
At one point this season, 31 players in the Big Ten were averaging 30 minutes a game in league play, and five wore Ohio State jerseys. Can No. 1 Ohio State (28-2, 15-2) make the Final Four using such a tight rotation?
The feeling among most coaches is that the Buckeyes will be just fine as long as they stay out of foul trouble. In the NCAA Tournament, TV timeouts stretch out a game and allow for more rest.
“The really great teams have very short benches,” Michigan coach John Beilein said, when asked about Ohio State. “It depends on how much talent you have, whether you can play five or six or seven (players).”
Harrison Barnes sightings
Not only was North Carolina’s 6-foot-8 forward projected to be the national freshman of the year, some preseason All-American teams also listed the Ames, Iowa, native. Barnes sputtered out of the gate, however. And, not surprisingly, so did the Tar Heels.
But, both began to soar in February. Barnes averaged 17 points and almost seven rebounds for the month. He scored 26 points against Boston College and 25 against North Carolina State.
because of Barnes’ improvement, North Carolina (24-6, 14-2 ACC) figures to be a tough draw in the NCAA Tournament.
“We’ve been working all season to make sure we get to this point,” Barnes told reporters last week. “And it’s been a struggle. We definitely had times where we didn’t think we could do it. But now we just have to seize the moment.”
Big scorers, big wins?
Not necessarily.
The nation’s top scorer, BYU senior guard Jimmer Fredette (27.3) is leading the Cougars into the NCAA Tournament. But several others among the top five will be doing their dancing at a nightclub.
That’s Providence’s Marshon Brooks (25.1), San Jose State’s Adrian Oliver (24.3), Hofstra’s Charles Jenkins (23.2) and Charleston’s Andrew Goudelock (23.0). Charleston and Hofstra have the best chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament among those four.
Former Colorado player Xavier Silas is averaging 22.3 points as a senior at Northern Illinois under ex-Buffs coach Ricardo Patton to rank seventh nationally. NIU is 9-20 and 5-11 in the Mid-American.
Purdue missing Hummel
Boilermakers fans can only sigh and wonder what this season could have been with star Robbie Hummel in uniform. A 6-8 forward with a sweet jump shot, Hummel was one of Purdue’s top-shelf triple threats (along with center JaJuan Johnson and guard E’Twaun Moore) while averaging 15.7 points per game last season as a junior. He went down with an ACL tear during a Feb. 24 game last year against Minnesota.
Without Hummel, Purdue still managed to reach the Sweet 16 last year and was eager to get him back on the court this season. But, Hummel again tore the ACL in his right knee Oct. 20 and was lost for the season.
Purdue (25-6, 14-4 Big Ten) has been a top-10 team most of the season, but the Boilermakers might be included in Final Four chatter had Hummel been available. And the loss to Iowa on Saturday did not help. Many in the hoops-crazy state of Indiana believe Hummel is a more talented version of Gordon Hayward, who led Butler to the 2010 Final Four.
Hummel intends to play next season. Without Johnson and Moore, the Boilermakers will need him.
Tom Kensler: 303-954-1280 or tkensler@denverpost.com
How far can BYU go?
The euphoria over BYU’s convincing victory last weekend at San Diego State lasted less than three days.
Pegged as a potential No. 1 seed, the Cougars must figure out how to play without starting center Brandon Davies. An athletic and versatile 6-foot-9 center, Davies was dismissed from the team Tuesday for the remainder of the season for an undisclosed violation of the school’s strict honor code, reportedly for having premarital sex.
Davies, who is from Provo, ranked third on the team in scoring (11.1) and was BYU’s top rebounder (6.2). He also was adept at finding open jump shooters, especially senior guard Jimmer Fredette, the favorite for national player of the year.
Even with Davies, the Cougars had been employing a tight rotation of six or seven players. In its first game without Davies, BYU (28-3, 14-2 MWC) got drubbed at home by New Mexico. Davies’ loss is a major blow not only to the Cougars’ chances of earning a No. 1 seed, but making much noise in the tournament.
It will be interesting to see how much Davies’ absence affects BYU’s bracket seeding.
