ASPEN, Colo.—A demographer says the super-rich are likely to have less impact on Aspen’s economy in the future and that tourists and retirees will play a bigger role.
Jim Westkott, the former senior demographer for Colorado state government, told local officials Wednesday the recession has changed his outlook for Aspen and other resort areas.
Many wealthy homeowners who made up a large part of the Aspen market four years ago lost a lot of money in the recession and are unlikely to recover that wealth in the near future, he said, according to reports in The Aspen Times and the Aspen Daily News.
He predicted the development of large, expensive second homes will decline because future retirees with Aspen aspirations can no longer afford to retire or live part-time there.
Construction of large second homes for wealthy part-time residents directly created jobs in construction, landscaping and cleaning. Westkott said a study by the Northwest Colorado Council of Governments in 2002 found that second home development created 41 percent of the jobs in Pitkin County. The study said winter tourism only generated 20 percent.
In the aftermath of the recession, Westkott said he also expects spending by ski visitors to drop because they want to save their discretionary income.
Aspen mayor Mick Ireland questioned Westkott’s assumption that the wealthy will no longer be able to afford Aspen’s luxurious living. He said national tax policy and tax cuts for the rich could result in concentrations of wealth invested in Aspen.
Westkott predicted an increase in construction of moderate- and large-size attached homes and more summertime tourism. He also said he is standing by a pre-recession prediction that baby boomers will continue to drive the economy of resort areas.
He said some houses in the 10,000-square-foot range could even be converted into duplexes, co-ops or some type of assisted living facilities as baby boomers begin to retire.
Westkott warned Pitkin County residents that current housing stock might experience pressure to change as they begin catering to new demographics. He suggested they remove obstacles, like zoning restrictions, that might impede conversion of large homes into duplexes.
