1. Carolina Panthers (2-14)
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Thumb: Down
Comment: Down only because they picked for pizazz here, leaving other, more highly-rated players on the board. They made the all-or-nothing bet. He’s either a star of huge proportions, if the Panthers will cater their offense to him rather than force him to change his game, or he will struggle to adapt.
2. Denver Broncos (4-12)
Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
Thumb: Up
Comment: For a team that finished last in the league in every major defensive category, including sacks, this is an every- down pick who is in the lineup from the moment he walks through the door.
3. Buffalo Bills (4-12)
Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Thumb: Up
Comment: A team that finished last in run defense last season and wanted to get bigger and tougher in the defensive front got an explosive, up-field player.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Thumb: Up
Comment: Green was a top-four player on most teams’ boards and will provide some incentive for this team to try to get QB Carson Palmer to return to the team he’s vowed to never play for again.
5. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Thumb: Up
Comment: A lot of folks believed this team would take a quarterback here, but it likely has plans for that position in free agency and was quick to take the best player on the board.
6. Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
from Cleveland
Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Thumb: Up
Comment: The Falcons believe they have the quarterback in Matt Ryan and the team around him to make a Super Bowl run, but they surrendered a pile of draft picks to move up 21 spots to get Ryan a weapon to try to push them over the top.
7. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
Thumb: Up
Comment: Smith played in only 23 games in his college career, having come out after his sophomore season and also missed three games with a fractured lower leg this past season. Athletic and with a huge upside.
8. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Thumb: Down
Comment: Down because it is a reach. The Titans had pegged Locker as their quarterback of choice in recent weeks, but could have traded down some to take him. Other teams were obviously looking to move up, so they jumped early here.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
Tyron Smith, T, USC
Thumb: Up
Comment: Either Smith or CU’s Nate Solder was the top tackle on most teams’ draft boards, and with three starters in the offensive line set to turn 33 years old in the coming season, they obviously knew they needed help to protect QB Tony Romo.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
from Washington
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Thumb: Up
Comment: They likely sensed the QB run was getting ready to begin in earnest, and looking at the way this board was unfolding with the Titans’ reach on Locker, they moved up to grab Gabbert.
11. Houston Texans (6-10)
J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Thumb: Up
Comment: Gary Kubiak and GM Rick Smith need to improve the team’s defense or they are likely out of chances with owner Bob McNair. In their switch to a 3-4 scheme with Wade Phillips calling the shots, Watt will have a chance to be a defensive rookie of the year candidate.
12. Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
Christian Ponder, QB, Florida St.
Thumb: Down
Comment: A big reach here for a team that picked for immense need rather than trusting its board. Ponder improved his stock plenty at the Senior Bowl and in workouts, but is coming off two elbow surgeries to close out the year.
13. Detroit Lions (6-10)
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Thumb: Up
Comment: They were planning to take an offensive tackle here, but this is how to draft. Take the best player available, regardless of position, and the best defensive line in the league will now line up Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh.
14. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Thumb: Up
Comment: Quinn is a medical question mark with part of a benign tumor still in his brain after surgery in high school, and has not played in a year because of a suspension this past season. One of the youngest players on the board with 11 sacks in ’09.
15. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
Thumb: Down
Comment: If they’re right, they have a long-time starter for a team that values the run game. However, they reached some and bypassed the best running back on the board in Mark Ingram, who would have started from Day One.
16. Wash. Redskins (6-10)
from Jacksonville
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Thumb: Up
Comment: A fierce, high-effort player who set a Big Ten record with 14 forced fumbles in his career. The question will be where the Redskins will play him in their 3-4 look, but he is likely headed to outside linebacker, where he is defensive coordinator Jim Haslett’s kind of player.
17. New Eng. Patriots (14-2)
from Oakland
Nate Solder, T, Colorado
Thumb: Up
Comment: The most athletic tackle in this draft and has the biggest upside with his lean 6-foot-8, 319-pound frame. The Patriots will take their time and create a long-term starter.
18. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Thumb: Up
Comment: Likely looking at a move to defensive end in the Chargers’ 3-4 look as San Diego is looking for help on defense all over the board. Liuget is a quick, upfield player who will be in the lineup immediately.
19. New York Giants (10-6)
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Thumb: Up
Comment: They need significant help in the offensive line, but went with the best player available here. Amukamara made some teams nervous because he did not have an interception this past season, but is the high-value pick.
20. Tampa Bay Bucs (10-6)
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Thumb: Up
Comment: Having finished 30th in the league in sacks per pass attempt last season, they were searching for pass-rush help from the start of the offseason. Clayborn has a medical concern with a nerve condition in his right shoulder, but has dealt with it for his entire football career.
21. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
from Kansas City
Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Thumb: Up
Comment: They are making the switch to a 4-3 look on defense and were looking for bulk to put up front. They moved up to get him.
22. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College
Thumb: Up
Comment: A rare choice for general manager Bill Polian, who had only taken an offensive lineman in the first round of the previous 24 drafts with the Bills, Panthers and Colts.
23. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Danny Watkins, G/T, Baylor
Thumb: Up
Comment: One of the toughest players in the draft. Older, at 26, than most prospects, but tough, physical and backs down from no one.
24. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Thumb: Up
Comment: The Saints benefited the most from the panic-driven run on QBs when they ended up with defensive linemen who wouldn’t have been available to them in most circumstances.
25. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
James Carpenter, T, Alabama
Thumb: Down
Comment: A huge reach here for a player who carried an early third-round grade from many teams. But this is how much the NFL loves Nick Saban’s players.
26. Kansas City (10-6)
from Cleveland
Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pitt
Thumb: Down
Comment: They had needs in the offensive line, but were obviously looking for someone to take the heat off Dwayne Bowe and reached somewhat to do it.
27. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Thumb: Up
Comment: It’s up with an asterisk. In the end they took a flyer on Smith, trusting people who vouched for him.
28. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
from New England
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Thumb: Up
Comment: Saints surrendered a second-rounder this year to go with a first-rounder next year to move back into the round to take the best back on the board.
29. Chicago Bears (11-5)
Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin
Thumb: Up
Comment: Another team who will thank all of the QB chasers with the Outland Trophy winner falling into their lap.
30. New York Jets (11-5)
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple
Thumb: Up
Comment: Has some rough edges that need to be smoothed out, but will play at end in the Jets’ 3-4 look.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State
Thumb: Up.
Comment: Another example here with a guy whose surgically-repaired elbow checked out and had 33 tackles for loss in his last 25 games.
32. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi
Thumb: Up
Comment: They tried to get out of this spot, but could not so simply took a player with a top-25 grade who will help them protect QB Aaron Rodgers.
