I was invited to participate in a debate the other night with conservative state Sen. Shawn Mitchell. The topic was the debt ceiling, which explains why there was no admission charge.
The debate went as expected. I made the jokes. Nobody mentioned anyone’s underwear. I’m sure Lincoln and/or Douglas would have been proud.
And I did learn one thing. I already knew there was no defensible argument for failing to raise the debt ceiling, unless you truly believe what the nation needs is yet another financial catastrophe.
But what I was reminded of was the terrible temptation facing politicians to believe that because they believe something — even as strange a notion as the willingness to risk default — nearly everyone else must believe it, too. (By the way, it’s not quite as tempting for columnists, since we’re constantly and immediately reminded by helpful readers that we’re wrong about everything.)
This issue became clearer when Mitchell and I were discussing the recent spate of swing elections — 2006 and 2008 for Democrats, 2010 for Republicans — and I was thinking how this could be a rare opportunity for me to actually use the word “spate.” What I said, instead, was that I thought the swings were less about politics than they were about a general economic uneasiness among the middle class, which has seen its income remain steady (read: stagnant) for years.
Mitchell said he thought the 2006 and 2008 swing elections meant little — just the reflection of a war-weary nation — but that the big 2010 Republican win was clearly a mandate to shrink government.
So I asked Mitchell, in the tricky debate maneuver I learned in high school, what he thought the poll ratings were for Republicans in Congress — the ones who had just been elected to transform government.
He didn’t want to guess, so I told him: According to a recent CBS poll, 21 percent approve of their role in the debt ceiling debate. Obama, meanwhile, is at 43 percent.
So, there’s your mandate.
And what does it mean? Less than you’d think.
Which brings us to the hot political story this week in Colorado — the front-page revelation that Republicans are running ads quoting Gov. John Hickenlooper saying that Obama would have a hard slog winning Colorado in 2012. Colorado will be a critical swing state again — which is great news if you love campaign ads or own a local TV station.
What was stunning about the story, which ran in Politico, was that Hickenlooper had been, well, candid, the last thing we expect from a politician. I’m sure Hickenlooper will be more careful next time.
Cable TV news teaches us that life is basically a debate between opposing politicians/pundits who always say exactly what they’re supposed to say. In other words, Hickenlooper was supposed to say that, despite the terrible economy, despite unemployment above 9 percent, despite Colorado being a purplish state, Obama should win a walk in 2012 because he’s a Democrat and Hickenlooper is a Democrat — so what else should he say?
When asked about his quote, Hickenlooper explained that he thought it would be a close race, but that Obama would probably pull through. And what he could have done was point to the first remark he made in Politico — which was that the answer depended on whom the Republicans nominate.
According to the polls, Obama’s toughest competition comes from Generic Republican, which is as good a description as you can get of Mitt Romney, unless it’s Generic Republican With Romney Hair.
It’s my theory — and I’m sticking to it — that Romney can’t be nominated. It’s not a Romney year. It’s a year when the House Republicans won’t agree to any deal with Obama that includes tax hikes, no matter how good the deal might be, because, you know, it raises taxes. And the Republican presidential field rushes to congratulate them for their wisdom.
It’s the kind of year in which even establishmentarian columnist George Will says the Tea Party is the most welcome Republican development since Goldwater.
It’s the kind of year in which the energized wing of the Republican Party seems to believe that a candidate like Michele Bachmann or secessionist Gov. Rick “America Second” Perry could carry the nation.
It could be a Goldwater moment. Or a McGovern moment, when movie critic Pauline Kael was famously quoted as saying she didn’t know how Nixon won (with 49 states) because everyone she knew voted for McGovern.
If she did actually say it, I’m sure it was meant to be ironic. This could be another big year for irony. I’m sure everyone agrees.
E-mail Mike Littwin at mlittwin@denverpost.com.
