WASHINGTON — Obama administration lawyers face a decision by today that carries a high political risk and will probably determine whether the Supreme Court decides on the constitutionality of the health care law before next year’s presidential election.
The Justice Department could ask the full 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta to reconsider a 2-1 decision in August that declared the law’s mandate that all Americans must have health insurance unconstitutional. But seeking the full court review could take weeks, or even months, and probably would push back a Supreme Court ruling until 2013.
Or government lawyers could opt to skip the full review in the lower court and appeal directly to the Supreme Court this fall. That in turn would probably lead to a constitutional ruling on President Barack Obama’s health care law by next summer.
Under the appeals court’s rules, the Justice Department must notify the 11th Circuit by today whether it will seek a full court review. In recent weeks, lawyers on both sides of the case have been speculating on whether Obama’s legal team is eager to get the health care dispute before the Supreme Court soon, even if it means risking an embarrassing defeat for the president as he seeks re-election.
“Everyone is waiting to see what they do (today),” said Karen Harned, a lawyer for the National Federation of Independent Business. “For the Supreme Court, this is only a question of when they will decide it. And we are hoping it will be decided in the next term.”
The fate of Obama’s health care reform law figures to be at the center of next year’s presidential race. If the Supreme Court were to strike down Obama’s signature law as an unconstitutional overreach by the president and a Democratic Congress, it could deal a damaging blow to the president’s campaign for re-election.
However, if the justices were to uphold the law as a reasonable regulation of the nation’s health insurance market, their decision would give a powerful endorsement to Obama’s crusade for health care reform just when he most needs it. A pro- Obama ruling by the Roberts court would also badly undercut claims by Tea Party activists who contend federal regulation of health care is outside the bounds of the U.S. Constitution.
