Five things to watch
1. Brady and his bunch
Tom Brady’s résumé needs no introduction, not with three Super Bowl victories and a Hall of Fame induction upon retirement. But there’s no question he has more and more responsibility placed on his shoulders to overcome the team’s limping defense, which is among the league’s worst. Brady has topped 300 yards passing eight times this season and has done it with a greatest hits approach. He has tossed all 33 of his touchdown passes to just four players, including 15 to tight end Rob Gronkowski and nine to wide receiver Wes Welker.
2. Gronkowski presents matchup problems
Speaking of Gronkowski, the 6-foot-6, 265-pounder has been a matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators. He has six games with at least two touchdown receptions, and Brady will keep coming back to him in the red zone because no one yet has figured out how to stop him. Gronkowski overpowers safeties, especially with an arm-bar move in a crowd, and runs past linebackers. The Broncos will have some difficulty covering him, especially in their base defense when linebacker Wesley Woodyard is not on the field. This matchup could force the Broncos to play “smaller” on early downs to help in pass coverage and allow the Patriots a chance to run the ball.
3. How will the Pats mix and match on defense?
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is known to be willing to try almost anything on defense to shake things up. He is among the best at taking away the one thing an offense likes to do best and force it to do something else. But he doesn’t have the depth he used to on the defensive side, and that can be seen by his defense’s No. 32 ranking overall, as well as the fact he has used wide receiver Julian Edelman and a host of castoffs in his patchwork secondary. And it’s worth noting that the Pats have surrendered 108 fourth-quarter points this season.
4. Decisions, decisions:How will Tebow attack?
It will be another kind of test for Tim Tebow. Belichick’s teams have routinely preferred coverage over pressure when dealing with most quarterbacks, but his struggling defense rushes the passer better than it covers this season. Belichick figures to test Tebow with varied looks in coverage, but Tebow should have a chance to find the holes if he’s patient and prepared. After all, Indianapolis’ Dan Orlovsky was 30-of-37 for 353 yards with two touchdowns two weeks ago and the Colts scored 21 fourth-quarter points, albeit in a losing effort.
5. It’s Pats’ experiencevs. Broncos’ youth
The Patriots have won 10 games for the ninth consecutive season, have three Super Bowl wins since the start of the 2001 season and have a future Hall of Famer at quarterback. They’re also not the team they were just a year ago, when they were 14-2 before losing in the divisional round. The Broncos, meanwhile, are trying to earn their first postseason spot since 2005. Bottom line, the Patriots know how to win, and despite New England’s significant blemishes on defense, a win for the Broncos would be huge as it looks to convince most of football America it has something to offer beyond Tebow’s fourth-quarter heroics.
Game Plan
When the Broncos run
The Patriots, and particularly linebacker Jerod Mayo, have had plenty of trouble with missed tackles on defense this season. The Redskins pounded away for 170 yards rushing last Sunday. The Broncos have been a mixed bag for defenses by using some option and some zone plays to go with some old-school man-on-man blocking with Willis McGahee headed right into the middle of a defense. Overall, the Broncos have run 180 times over the center this season, or 41.6 percent of their rushing plays. Edge: Broncos
When the Patriots run
The run game is purely ornamental for New England at times, and it shows because they often have no rhythm running the ball when they really need to. They do have moments where it all comes together, which only makes Tom Brady more difficult to handle. But traditional run downs are not that for the Patriots. They have run on only 44 percent of their first-and-10 plays this season and just 43 percent of their second-and-5 plays. However, if the Broncos go lighter on defense with extra defensive backs on early downs to deal with Brady, New England may be more willing to try the run game. Edge: Broncos
When the Broncos pass
Much as the Broncos live in a world in which folks say no mistakes on offense really count if they win the game, the Patriots have surrendered more yards on defense than anyone else in the league — but opponents have not always turned those yards into touchdowns. New England is 14th in the league in scoring defense, despite being last in overall defense and last in pass defense. The Broncos must handle outside linebacker Andre Carter, who may be the team’s most disruptive player on defense. Edge: Patriots
When the Patriots pass
Yes, the Broncos have Champ Bailey, but he can cover only one receiver. Should the Broncos match Bailey on Wes Welker — 100 catches in 13 games — that leaves them trying to disperse the rest of their resources to cover two tight ends — Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez — who have a combined 130 receptions. Look for Brady to challenge rookie Chris Harris when he gets the chance and for the Patriots to push the tight ends down the middle of the field. Edge: Patriots
Special teams
Both teams have productive and sound special teams, with the Broncos having won their share of games with late kicks already this season. Julian Edelman gives the Patriots some potential impact in the return game. Field position will certainly be a premium for the Broncos in this one. They can’t leave Brady a short field without the risk of surrendering a touchdown every time they do it. Edge: Patriots
