1. Pull the trigger
The Broncos will sink or swim with the idea that Tim Tebow has to let it fly in the passing game. The Steelers present an aggressive, ever-changing look on defense and are in the business of making quarterbacks hesitate and throw passes where they shouldn’t. But Tebow has to find a way to pick his spots and be willing to throw into tight spaces because tight spaces are all this defense is going to give him. And if he won’t, or can’t, do it the questions remain about whether he is the long-term guy at the position for the Broncos or not.
2. The Steelers rush
Look up “get after it” in the football dictionary and you will likely find the chiseled face of Dick LeBeau. The long-time Steelers defensive coordinator has directed the league’s No. 1 defense for the fourth time since the start of the 2004 season alone.
To put that in perspective the Broncos have never, not once, finished a season with the league’s No. 1 defense since the franchise’s inception in 1960. LeBeau will send rushers from anywhere in the formation while James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley present the best combination of edge rushers the Broncos have seen this season.
3. Going to Redman
With Rashard Mendenhall out after suffering an ACL injury in the regular-season finale, Redman becomes the Steelers lead back. At 230 pounds Redman is the bigger option, along with 248-pound rookie John Clay, with Mewelde Moore the change of pace. The Steelers have transitioned some from the run-first outfit of years past, but they still want to run enough to keep opposing rushers off quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and his ailing ankle. They’ve run the ball at least 28 times in six of the last seven games.
4. Spread it out
The Steelers bread-and-butter on offense is a wide-open formation and Roethlisberger in the shotgun, especially on those mid-range second-down plays. On second-and-six for example, the Steelers are throwing the ball over 70 percent of the time.
Those totals may go up slightly given the bruised nature of the Broncos’ secondary. Also, Roethlisberger has enough experience in big games to zero in on the trouble spots in a defense and that means right cornerback Andre’ Goodman needs a top-tier day against the Steelers speedy group of receivers as does Broncos nickel corner Chris Harris.
5. Prime time players
The Steelers roster is loaded with players, especially on defense, with Super Bowl experience. They been here and done this before, many of them having come to Denver in 2005 to rip the Broncos’ best chance at a Super Bowl trip in the last decade out of the Broncos’ hands. The Broncos are a young team with most of the lineup, including Tebow, having never seen a playoff game. But everybody starts somewhere and the first quarter could very well tell the tale in this one.
Game plan
When the Broncos run
In almost every game since Tim Tebow was inserted into the starting lineup, the Broncos have run the ball effectively when everyone knows they want to run it. That’s no small task. But while the Steelers have surrendered 99 yards rushing per game — a nice total for most anybody but the Steelers — they have the potential to suffocate opposing run games. The Broncos face a dilemma in that they are at their best running Willis McGahee between the guards, and that is the area where Steelers have been consistently good in run defense this season. Edge: Steelers
When the Steelers run
After looking at video, bet on the Steelers spreading out the Broncos’ defense with three- and four-wide receiver looks and then running the ball against the lighter Broncos’ defensive packages. It has been a consistent problem for the Broncos the last month, and if they can’t close it down, this one could get ugly. The Broncos also have struggled to bring down the bigger backs, and the Steelers can send two big backs at a defense. The Broncos may be forced to sacrifice speed for strength in their nickel and dime packages, which could also leave them vulnerable to some play-action plays if linebacker Wesley Woodyard and/or Von Miller are taken out. Edge: Steelers
When the Broncos pass
The Broncos will want Tebow to pick up the pace. His desire to extend plays to “try to make something happen” is a recipe for trouble against the Steelers’ pass rush. Tebow can’t outrun the Steelers’ edge players, and to hold the ball is to invite negative play after negative play. Look for the Broncos to shorten some of the routes to encourage him to get rid of the ball and try to take advantage of Steelers uber-safety Troy Polamalu’s aggressiveness with a double-move route or two to try for a big play. Edge: Steelers
When the Steelers pass
The Steelers threw the ball 105 times more than they ran it this season, so it’s clear their preference is to let Ben Roethlisberger work out of the shotgun with a fleet group of receivers. Mike Wallace will be a matchup problem for the Broncos because of his speed as well as his improving work in the short and intermediate areas of the field. There is the matter of Roethlisberger’s playoff mettle as well. In his eighth season, he has already played in four AFC championship games and three Super Bowls. Edge: Steelers
Special teams
This is the group that holds an advantage for the Broncos. They are solid in the kicking game and have shown some pop in the return game. But in recent weeks, they have made game-changing mistakes, and those kind of mistakes are only amplified in games like these. Steelers kicker Scott Suisham doesn’t have nearly the range Matt Prater does. Edge: Broncos
