BEIRUT —As President Bashar Assad fights off a 10-month-old uprising, Syrians have been struggling to cope with shortages of heating oil and other fuel, electricity cuts of up to 16 hours a day and dwindling bank balances.
With no end in sight to the violent conflict, Assad’s embattled regime has sought to rally support by blaming the uprising — and the “terrorists” he says are behind it — for the profound economic crisis gripping the country of 22 million. The rhetoric reflects an awareness in the regime that economic pain could erode the support it has succeeded in retaining so far amid the turmoil.
For now, though, many Syrians say their immediate needs transcend politics.
“I haven’t seen such a crisis in my entire life,” said Majd Amer, a resident and activist in Homs, a city that has been among the hardest-hit by the military crackdown on protesters. “Most of the residents depend on assistance from their neighbors.”
Syria’s economy is groaning under the weight of sanctions from the U.S., European Union, the Arab League, and the emerging regional power Turkey. The government’s crackdown on the uprising has caused vital sources of revenue — like tourism — to dry up, and much of the economic squeeze has affected low-level merchants and businesses.
The value of the Syrian pound has dropped 50 percent, from 47 to the dollar to 71 to the dollar on the black market, sparking a rise in prices that is straining Syrian budgets.
On Friday, Central Bank Governor Adib Mayaleh said Syria will start next week to intervene to “improve the price of the pound,” meaning it would spend reserves to maintain the value.
In a speech this month, Assad blamed his opponents for Syrians’ suffering, and mockingly asked whether being a revolutionary meant “depriving people of cooking oil they need so they don’t starve.”
Analysts say the change in tone is a shift by the regime. In the early days of the uprising, the government stressed it was invulnerable to the sanctions. But now, Assad and others increasingly cite Syrians’ suffering — and say the uprising is the cause of it all.
The move signals a keen understanding that if the economy crumbles, it could spell doom for the regime. “The regime is trying to mobilize against the sanctions, now that the sanctions are affecting their economy,” said Said Hirsh, a Mideast economist with Capital Economics in London.
So far, the monied classes have stuck beside Assad amid the greatest challenge yet to the 40-year rule of his family. But if the economic squeeze reaches them, it could be a game-changer for Assad because they might begin to pressure for some sort of resolution to the crisis or even turn outright against him.
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Denver Post wire services
