TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s hard-liners have been so effective at crushing the opposition, they are left brawling among themselves.
That’s the messy political scramble in this week’s parliamentary elections — the first major voting since the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009 and the mass protests, chaos and crackdowns that followed.
The ballots cast Friday amount to a popularity contest among various conservative factions, which were once united against reformists and are now sniping at one another and picking sides in the power struggle between Ahmadinejad and his opponents within the ruling Islamic theocracy.
In many ways, the outcome may determine whether Ahmadinejad is politically spent or still able to exert influence over elections next year to pick his successor, who will become Iran’s new international face and inherit challenges that are now hard to predict. The West still favors economic sanctions as the best tool to rein in Iran’s disputed nuclear program, but Israel says a military strike could be necessary if Tehran refuses to ease its defiance.
“This election is a test of strength for the groups still standing after the crackdowns,” said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. “The reformists are out of the picture. Ahmadinejad has been under attack. The question then becomes: Can he get a second wind out of this?”
The grip of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the protectors of the ruling system remains as strong as ever. They control all key appointments and policies — including nuclear and defense — while vetting every candidate for president and parliament. Elected officials are allowed some leeway, yet always with the understanding that the clerics at the top can reverse any decision.
