Devising a scheme to beat Baylor is almost as difficult as finding someone who knows how to do it. No one has this season.
How do you beat a team that is 38-0 and has a 6-foot-8 junior center who’s realizing her superstardom, an All-America point guard, support players who seize their roles and an “Unfinished Business” mantra that is two wins from reality?
The Women’s Final Four at the Pepsi Center on Sunday and Tuesday features four No. 1 seeds, all with national championships on their résumé. Yet amid this greatness, top-ranked Baylor stands out like a Renoir at the Louvre.
“They’re on an island by themselves,” Texas A&M coach Gary Blair said this week, “and everybody in the country is hoping somebody else can beat them.”
Blair’s Aggies were the last team to beat Baylor, upsetting the Bears in last year’s regional final. Talking to three Big 12 coaches who face the tall task of playing Baylor on a regular basis, they broke down five ingredients to pull the upset.
1. Post players who can shoot the trey
The theory with this strategy is to lure All-American Brittney Griner away from the basket, where she has become the second-most prolific shot-blocker in NCAA history.
“Most of our posts can shoot the 3,” said Iowa State coach Bill Fennelly , whose Cyclones beat Baylor in Griner’s freshman year by hitting 16 3s. “That’s what we did. We did dribble drive and tried to kick it to the outside. You’re just not going to get a lot of shots around the goal.”
Connecticut hit 11 3s in a 66-61 loss at Baylor in December. Texas Tech played Baylor close twice this season in part because of its ability to hit the 3.
The problem: Baylor’s perimeter defense is improved from early in the season. With Griner blocking anyone coming within a time zone of the basket, the Bears can extend their defense to guard the arc.
“They’re better,” Fennelly said. “They switch a little bit now. They’re a little more aggressive.”
2. Stop point guard Odyssey Sims
Forget Griner for a moment. Sims is who makes Baylor go. A year ago, Texas A&M upset Baylor when savvy senior Sydney Colson forced Sims into an 0-for-6 game. As a freshman, Sims was due for some off days.
“You’ve got to be able to create offense where it doesn’t rely on something low on the blocks,” Kansas coach Bonnie Henrickson said. “Turn them over so you can get out in transition where (Griner) is trailing the play.”
The problem: This season Sims has developed into an All-American who can hit the 3 and find the open teammate. She’s upped her average from 13.1 points per game to 14.8 and her assists from 3.1 to 4.4.
“She’s so much better,” Blair said. “She’s the best point guard in the country.”
3. Tweak defense to neutralize Griner
Griner is averaging 23.4 points and 9.4 rebounds. Playing her straight up usually doesn’t work. Last year, Blair fronted her with 6-foot Tyra White, who is very quick. A&M held Griner to 6-of-18 shooting.
“You slide a quicker player in front, not a taller player, because a taller player they’ll just throw over anyway,” Blair said.
He advises using two post players with 10 fouls to give against Griner. This season, Blair started 6-5 backup Karla Gilbert instead of foul-prone starter Kelsey Bone.
The problem: “This year they’re a lot more team-oriented,” Blair said.
Blair’s strategy didn’t work this season. Baylor jumped to a 17-2 lead and won by 23. And fouling Griner doesn’t help much. She’s shooting .804 from the line.
4. Don’t try getting Griner in foul trouble
A normal strategy coaches use to neutralize a great player such as Griner is forcing that player to work as much as possible on defense and attempting to get them in foul trouble.
“You’ve got to be careful of wasting possessions where your players alter shots and you can’t score,” Henrickson said. “She’s got enough body control where she’s very rarely fouling.”
The problem: This is a time-honored strategy disaster. There’s a reason she’s averaging 5.2 blocks a game. Griner has fouled out once — the second game of her freshman year — and is averaging two fouls a game.
5. Play with no fear
Texas A&M had lost to Baylor by three, nine and three points before it finally won in the regional final. “We didn’t have a fear attitude,” Blair said. “We had a respect attitude.”
Go ahead and look up to Griner — with your eyes, not your ego.
“You’ve got to convince your kids, don’t worry about getting your shot blocked,” Fennelly said. “Most kids don’t want to get their shot blocked. They’re embarrassed by it.”
The problem: Notre Dame and Connecticut have played Baylor this season. Stanford, Sunday’s opponent, has not. No one in the weak sister Pac-12 can stay on the court with Baylor.
The Ogwumike sisters, All-American Nnemkadi and Chiney, the conference defensive player of the year, have no fear. However, Stanford’s posts don’t shoot the 3, and Nneka didn’t make a 3-pointer until the Pac-12 Tournament.
Oh, and here’s a warning, folks, courtesy of Blair: “Baylor’s going to be better next year than this year.”
John Henderson: 303-954-1299, or jhenderson@denverpost.com
Women’s NCAA Final Four
Sunday at the Pepsi Center
Notre Dame vs. Connecticut 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Baylor vs. Stanford 7 p.m., ESPN
