In most elections, you’d have to consider Mitt Romney in a good spot. After all, nearly two-thirds of Americans still tell pollsters that the country is headed in the wrong direction. The incumbent president’s approval ratings hover in the mid- to high 40s. And the vast majority of probable voters remain adamant that we’re still mired in a recession, despite months of economic growth and declines in unemployment.
The mood of the electorate is sour, in other words — and yet the man who is now certain to be the Republican nominee, since the withdrawal from the race of Rick Santorum, appears to be facing an uphill fight.
Romney’s own approval ratings are even lower than the president’s — 37 percent in a recent CNN poll, for example. By contrast, as USA Today noted this week, “Since 1996, eventual nominees of both parties were favored by 53 percent to 56 percent of the electorate at this time of year.”
So what’s different with Romney?
Part of his problem no doubt is the one that has dogged him throughout the Republican primaries — an inability to generate excitement combined with doubts about the authenticity of some of his views. This weakness explains why one opponent after another — including a few, such as Newt Gingrich, who would have been disastrous general election candidates — temporarily appeared to challenge Romney for the role as front-runner.
With that field now effectively vanquished, Romney has seven months to persuade Americans that his core message — at least on the economy, which is what voters care most about — is one on which he has been consistent and that represents a sharp and positive contrast with Barack Obama.
In addition, Romney has probably been damaged by the primary process and the need to tack right on social issues and immigration. The rather odd spectacle of candidates discussing the availability of contraception and how it should be covered by insurance, for example, may have particularly alienated some independent women voters. That might explain the pronounced female gender gap favoring Obama that has shown up in recent polls, especially in swing states such as Colorado.
This weakness among women no doubt accounts for Romney’s attempt this week to turn the tables, accusing the Obama administration of waging “the real war on women” through policies that have made it “harder for the recovery to occur.”
We’re not sure that’s the most effective comeback tactic, but time alone is probably his ally as the campaign moves into high gear and other issues rise to prominence.
We’re glad Republicans chose Romney from a very uneven field of candidates. He’s consistently appeared well versed on the issues, and his background in both the public and private sectors provides him with a well-rounded perspective on today’s challenges.
By November, in fact, we wouldn’t be at all surprised if he and the president weren’t running neck and neck.
