If you read this column last week, where I said the New England Patriots would be the best bet the rest of the regular season, you probably said to yourself “what the heck are you talking about Nowak” after the Patriots fell behind 24-0 at the half against Denver last week.
The weird thing about this season is that despite my struggles with the full slate of games each week, my spot-play predictions (upset specials and top plays) have been, well, spot on. This season hasn’t been an easy one for a lot of handicappers, and all you have to do is check the records of many of the experts at, ESPN.com andto see what I mean.
Last week, the Patriots certainly took no prisoners in the second half. They outscored the Broncos 31-7 to send the game into overtime, and the 2.5-point underdog Patriots won 34-31.
The Patriots close out the regular season with Houston today followed by Cleveland, Miami, Baltimore and Buffalo. All of those games should be one-sided affairs with the Patriots covering against-the-spread in each one.
The Patriots play a Texans team today that was man-handled by the hapless Jaguars last week. I see the Patriots dominating on both sides of the ball.
What makes this play even more appetizing is the Patriots are only favored by 7.
Other solid plays include San Diego and San Francisco with home games today. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS in home games this season including straight-up wins over Indianapolis and Dallas. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games including 3-1 at home. The 49ers will also add depth at receiver today with Michael Crabtree likely making his 2013 debut after recovering from an Achilles injury.
Sunday’s games
Tennessee at Indianapolis (-4.5): The Titans have been exceptional ATS on the road with a 5-0 record. Nowak’s pick: Titans 27-24.
Denver at Kansas City (+3.5): Chiefs have returned back to earth with two straight losses straight up including a 27-17 loss to Denver on Nov. 17. Kansas City is also 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Nowak’s pick: Broncos 27-20.
Jacksonville at Cleveland (-7): I can’t seem to figure the Jaguars out from week to week, but I’m going with the trends in this spot. The Jags are 3-0 ATS in their last three road games, and their two wins on the field this season have come in their last two games on the road. The key word here is road. Nowak’s pick: Jaguars 20-17.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-8.5): The Buccaneers have been solid ATS with a 4-0 record in their last four games. The Panthers have been solid too with a 6-1 record ATS in their last seven games. The last time the Bucs didn’t cover ATS was in a 31-13 loss to Carolina onOct. 24. Nowak’s pick: Panthers 31-13.
Chicago at Minnesota (+2.5): The Bears beat Minnesota 31-30 in their first game of the season in September, but this one shouldn’t be as close. The Bears need a win to stay in contention with Detroit for the NFC North Division title. Chicago also owns a 6-2 record ATS in the last eight meetings with Minnesota. Nowak’s pick: Bears 27-21.
Arizona at Philadelphia (-3.5): Both teams have been hot lately with the biggest surprise coming from quarterback Carson Palmer, who has led the Cardinals to wins in their last four games. Philly wins, Cardinals cover. Nowak’s pick: Eagles 24-23.
Miami at the Jets (-1.5): Miami gets the edge here on both sides of the ball. Nowak’s pick: Dolphins 20-17.
Atlanta vs. Buffalo (-3.5) in Toronto: The Falcons have been plagued by injuries, but I think a healthy Roddy White and Steven Jackson come alive with huge games against the Bills defense. Nowak’s pick: Falcons 30-17.
St. Louis at San Francisco (-7.5): See above. Nowak’s pick: 49ers 30-13.
New England at Houston (+7): See above. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 34-17.
Cincinnati at San Diego (-1): See above. Nowak’s pick: Chargers 27-20.
Giants at Washington (-2.5): Redskins have been a mess on both sides of the ball, while the Giants have been improving with a 4-2 mark ATS in their last six games. Nowak’s pick: Giants 27-17.
Monday’s game
New Orleans at Seattle (-6): Russell Wilson is 2-0on Mondaynight and New Orleans QB Drew Brees has won his last nine gameson Mondaynight. Difference in this game will be Saints dominating tight end Jimmy Graham. Nowak’s pick: Saints 30-27.
Contact Dan atdnowak@nhregister.com. Follow Dan on Twitter .
