Perhaps it seems far-fetched that a computerized system could predict dangerous developments in raging and 12 hours in advance.
How could such a thing possibly be reliable given the numerous variables involved?
I might imagine that some people thought the same thing in the early 1980s when scientists began creating a model at Stapleton International Airport that would eventually become the gold standard for .
As you may recall, wind shears were a feared weather phenomenon implicated in airplane crashes that killed hundreds of people.
The common thread between these prediction systems is the National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR, which we are fortunate to have headquartered in Boulder.
NCAR scientists have been at the leading edge of developing systems that rely on sophisticated weather metrics and other data to get a handle on hazards that seem inscrutable.
One of their more recent efforts are fire and prediction systems, the subject of a funding request at the Colorado legislature.
Backers are asking the state to kick in $10 million over five years to bring this project to the point where it can be used by emergency responders who are trying to save lives and property.
It has been 20 years in the making, and already has had some $20 million of investment from the National Science Foundation and other backers, so this fire and flood model is pretty far down the road at this point.
Computers, high-resolution satellite imagery and real-time weather information intersect to allow scientists to predict the behavior of wildfires in rapidly changing conditions.
William P. Mahoney III, deputy director of one of NCAR’s labs, recently visited the Denver Post editorial board and showed us how the model accurately predicted the way some recent large fires unfolded — including dangerous events that experienced fire professionals did not anticipate. It was impressive.
Given the immense devastation inflicted in this state by historic flooding in 2013 and a series of awful wildfire seasons, it seems like a project that could make a difference.
Beyond the fire and flood prediction systems, NCAR has created in predicting wind and sunshine that Xcel Energy relies upon for renewable energy generation. That project saved electricity customers $40 million over five years and won the in the sustainability category.
Another system tested in Colorado that has been broadly recognized as a success uses weather data and pavement temperature probes to allow road maintenance crews to know when to put down de-icing agents and when to reapply.
A project in the works at NCAR would enable medical authorities in developing countries to of disease such as meningitis and dengue fever, which have connections to weather patterns.
Another system under development, which I find particularly fascinating, would enable the new generation of digitally connected cars to be .
Wireless-enabled cars would automatically — and anonymously — transmit updates about weather conditions to a central database. The processing center then could relay alerts to other drivers in the area.
Who among us hasn’t unknowingly driven across a patch of black ice that steals your traction and peace of mind? Wouldn’t it be great to know a few seconds or minutes in advance that peril lies ahead?
We live in an age in which evolving tech has enabled some truly stunning innovation. How wonderful to see some of those projects come to fruition right in our backyard.
E-mail Alicia Caldwell at acaldwell@denverpost.com. Follow her on Twitter: @AliciaMCaldwell
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