LONDON — After unexpected political charisma and cunning propelled him to another term as Britain’s prime minister, David Cameron will now need every ounce of those skills to avoid going down in history with an altogether different title: founding father of Little England.
A result that maintained the status quo at 10 Downing Street masked the dramatic transformations roiling Britain, ones that threaten to leave this country more isolated than at any time in its modern history.
The election Thursday might become just the first in a trilogy of rapid-fire votes that set this island adrift from Europe, divide it in half along ancient lines of national identity, and ultimately leave behind a rump state of ever-diminishing value to its American allies.
“Yesterday was V-E Day, when the United Kingdom was celebrating its finest hour. Seventy years later, it could be contemplating the beginning of its end in its current form,” said David Torrance, a British political analyst and author. “The next five years will be a twin debate about two unions — the European Union and the United Kingdom.”
The questions of whether Britain stays whole and whether it remains in Europe are deeply entangled, with the outcome of one expected to heavily influence the other.
If Britain leaves Europe despite notably pro-European sentiment in Scotland, the chances of Scotland’s newly empowered nationalists leading another drive for independence would instantly rise.
That’s one reason that Europe is likely to be settled first. Cameron promised a referendum on the matter by the end of 2017, but some are pushing for the vote to come far sooner so that uncertainty doesn’t hang over Britain’s economic and political fortunes for the next 2½ years.
Polls suggest that if the vote were held today, Britain would choose to stay in the EU. But the energized voices for “out” are gearing up for the fight, in the belief that the country could better manage itself.
Opponents of an exit say it could be catastrophic, leading to an exodus of jobs and a muffling of Britain’s voice both in Europe and beyond.
Cameron has projected ambivalence on the issue, saying he wants the country to remain inside Europe, but only if he can win critical changes to the EU charter.
“This will not break in any way smoothly along party lines. Part of his cabinet will campaign to leave, and part of his cabinet will campaign to stay,” said Ian Kearns, director of the European Leadership Network.
