When 14 Republican presidential candidates take the stage Wednesday in Boulder, their jabs and attempts to stand out could cement emerging campaign story lines or upend them.
The candidates’ performances in two CNBC-moderated debates, which will focus on economic issues, could help cull the Republican herd in coming weeks. That’s especially so for the 6 p.m. main event, featuring the top 10 candidates in CNBC’s average of recent polls.
“When you look at how wide-open the race is, and you combine that with the sheer number of eyeballs that have been tuning in to these things, you’ve got all the ingredients of a very consequential evening,” said Josh Penry, a Colorado GOP strategist who is the state chairman for Marco Rubio’s campaign.
The Denver Post spoke with about a dozen political observers and analysts from Colorado and the nation to take stock of the candidates, who will debate .
Here’s where the analysts say the top six stand — and what to watch for Wednesday. The candidates are listed with their most recent .
Donald Trump
(real estate mogul — 27 percent)
The political phenomenon and polarizing firebrand is seeing his stature atop the national polls face a challenge from rival Ben Carson. His controversial comments about immigration — and a push to deport an estimated 11 million people — may prove a sticking point in Colorado, where the Latino vote is a key constituency.
His confrontational style is what draws admirers, but many Republican voters want to see more substance. He is also losing traction with evangelical conservatives and needs to regain a bit of momentum. “If he follows the last debate with another bad outing, it might be the signal for the end of the Trump experiment,” said Sean Tonner, a Denver Republican political consultant who once worked for George W. Bush.
Ben Carson
(retired surgeon — 22 percent)
The softspoken Carson has shot ahead of Trump in recent Iowa polls and has polled even in some national surveys. Familiar to many voters from books and frequent TV appearances, Carson has gone after the religious conservative vote, lately emphasizing his opposition to abortion, which he compared to slavery.
Analysts expect Trump, who has questioned some of the polling, to point his knives squarely at Carson. That means Carson “needs to show more energy right out of the gate,” said Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan. “While there was a bit of a Carson-Trump bromance during the Los Angeles debate, the dynamic between them on Wednesday will likely be much more contentious, since the stakes are so high.”
Marco Rubio
(Florida U.S. senator — 9 percent)
Rubio’s emphasis on his personal story, as well as his grasp of foreign policy issues, is making him an attractive establishment alternative to Jeb Bush and the political newcomers, such as Trump and Carson. His absentee record in the U.S. Senate remains a problem for him to explain.
Jeb Bush sees Rubio as a threat, giving him an incentive to confront the senator directly Wednesday. Will Rubio withstand the pressure and stick to his message? “This is an interesting moment for Rubio,” said Seth Masket, chairman of the University of Denver’s Department of Political Science. “With Jeb Bush stumbling recently … insiders are starting to look at Rubio as a possible nominee and evaluating his potential.”
Jeb Bush
(former Florida governor — 7 percent)
Bush is facing a pivotal moment in this debate, political analysts agree, after tough headlines about a campaign shake-up designed to trim expenses. His recent gathering with family and top donors in Texas may have recharged Bush, and analysts think a strong debate performance would buy him breathing room.
With the heat on his campaign, Bush will face pressure to connect on economic issues and re-establish himself as the alternative to the top-polling outsider candidates. “This is going to be a deciding debate for Jeb Bush,” said Jeff Motter, a CU instructor who specializes in debate communication. “If he can’t give people a compelling reason to vote for him (instead of) Donald Trump or even Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, I think he’s out.”
Ted Cruz
(TexasU.S. senator — 6.6 percent)
The freshman senator, a GOP insurgent and instigator of government shutdowns, remains wildly popular among some voters who thirst for an outsider. But he’s been stuck in the single-digits in polling as he cultivates support from social conservatives and Tea Partiers.
Cruz is seen by many as a strong debater, but he’s avoided jabs at Trump and is playing a long game, analysts say. “His biggest strength is not necessarily on the debate stage but on the actual playing field,” said Amy Walter, national editor for the Cook Political Report. “He has money. He has a lot of organizational support, and he has a lot of infrastructure in these early states. And he has the calendar on his side.”
Carly Fiorina
(former tech executive — 5.8 percent)
In a field crowded with outsiders, Fiorina has touted her business experience as Hewlett-Packard’s former CEO. But after strong debate performances in the first two rounds — resulting in a polling surge as Republican voters took notice — her recent standing has fallen back into the single digits.
Seizing on the debate’s economic focus, Fiorina began laying the groundwork by taking aim at Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton’s economic policies. As many likely caucus and primary voters begin to tune in to the race, her challenge Wednesday is “to be able to continue her good performance in the prior debates and to gain back a little of her support,” said Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa.
The other candidates
Also set to participate in the 6 p.m. top-tier debate are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. The 4 p.m. “undercard” debate for low-polling candidates will feature Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, former New York Gov. George Pataki and South Carolina U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham.
