Is Broncos coach Gary Kubiak the right man to lead Denver to a championship?
Stuck between John Elway and a hard place, Kubiak is quickly discovering what John Fox learned the hard way: The coach of the Broncos gets almost none of the credit for the victories, but nearly all of the blame when Denver doesn’t win the Super Bowl.
His team owns a 10-3 record, yet all anybody wants to ask Kubiak is when he’s going to make up his dang mind between Brock Osweiler and Peyton Manning as the starting quarterback for the playoffs.
When the Denver offense stinks, it’s not because receiver Demaryius Thomas can’t catch or tackle Michael Schofield can’t block, but because the lack of imagination by Kubiak has caused scoring droughts that have twice caused the Broncos to endure more than 20 offensive possessions without a touchdown.
Get beat in Pittsburgh, and the hottest seat in Denver will be wherever Kubiak is buckled in as the team plane touches down in Colorado. After starting the season with seven consecutive victories, the Broncos would no longer even be a lock to win the AFC West.
The Broncos are a quarterback controversy waiting to happen. “I’m not going to talk about what’s going on three weeks from now, or two weeks from now,” Kubiak said Wednesday. “We’re committed to playing Pittsburgh. We’re going to have to have to be really good this weekend. We know who our quarterback is this weekend.”
Kubiak, however, will eventually be forced to choose between Osweiler and Manning as the best man to lead a playoff run. The coach might as well flip a coin.
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While the QB rating system used by the NFL apparently was invented by an algebra teacher out for vengeance on students who fell asleep in the back of class, there is one statistic that reveals much about signal-caller’s efficiency. Adjusted net yards passing per attempt, which includes a penalty for sacks and interceptions, is a relatively simple and crucial measuring stick.
At 4.45 yards per drop back, it’s the worst performance by Manning in his 18-year pro career. Although Osweiler has proved less of a liability in throwing interceptions, his nasty habit of holding the ball too long has contributed to 17 sacks, and his net yards per passing attempt is 5.34. That’s better than Manning, but nowhere near Tom Brady (7.63) or Cam Newton (7.13) in comparison to the top QBs of 2015.
The reality is Kubiak has no real good option at quarterback. It’s highly unlikely either Osweiler or Manning can give the Broncos’ championship-quality play at the most important position on the field. But whatever decision Kubiak makes, he will get blamed for the wrong choice should Denver make an early playoff exit.
The Broncos offensive line is a mess. Is that Kubiak’s fault? Without Ryan Clady and Ty Sambrailo, Denver is playing minus its top two tackles. When the team had a chance to acquire Cleveland’s Joe Thomas, an eight-time Pro Bowler, at the trade deadline, Elway declined, deeming the price too high.
One cause of the rift between Fox and Elway that led to a coaching change was Fox’s lack of faith in receiver Cody Latimer and Schofield. Kubiak has diligently worked to allow those two prized draft picks to shine. Latimer, however, has been unable to make an impact, with two rushes for 1 yard and six catches for 59 yards. During the loss to the Raiders, Schofield was run over by a truck named Khalil Mack.
Why would any reasonable person expect Kubiak to work miracles for the Broncos? His track record as an NFL coach was well-established in Houston, where his overall record with the Texans was 73-69, the very definition of mediocrity. He does own three Super Bowl rings; as an assistant coach in San Francisco, Denver and Baltimore, his resume includes a sterling 151-79 record. It’s far easier to be a great coordinator than a great head coach.
There’s a sense of entitlement in apountry that ignores recent football history. Denver has not won the Super Bowl since the year the Clinton making news for presidential politics was named Bill and Lance Armstrong was a new American hero lauded for winning his first Tour de France. Despite the inconvenient truth that 16 NFL seasons have passed since the Broncos were the champs, Elway has convinced fans the next championship is just around the corner.
Hey, we all love the Super Bowl or bust mentality. But let’s keep it real. The league’s best defense makes Denver a legitimate contender. There probably aren’t six NFL teams with a better chance than the Broncos of winning it all.
The odds of Denver winning the Super Bowl are currently listed as 12:1 in Las Vegas, which makes the Broncos a dark horse and means there’s more than a 90 percent probability Kubiak won’t be a coach who puts the team over the top this season.
But before we blame the coach for everything and anything that ails the Broncos, please answer me one little question:
Who hired Kubiak?
Mark Kiszla: , mkiszla@denverpost.com or @markkiszla
