CHARLESTON, S.C. — The strength of anti-establishment fervor in the 2016 presidential campaign faces a twin test Saturday, with Donald Trump favored to win the Republican primary in the crucial state of South Carolina and Sen. Bernie Sanders battling Hillary Clinton for supremacy in the Democratic caucuses in Nevada.
Establishment Republicans have yet to fully coalesce around an alternative to Trump, although Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who stumbled in New Hampshire, hopes to rebound in Saturday’s balloting in South Carolina and cement himself in that role.
Clinton still enjoys strong support from the Democratic establishment, and her goal in Nevada is to blunt the momentum Sanders acquired from a victory in New Hampshire then move on next week to South Carolina, where she enjoys broad support from African-Americans.
A big Trump victory in the Palmetto State would stamp him clearly as the Republican front-runner, while a Sanders win in Nevada would raise more questions about Clinton’s appeal and add to pressure on her to score a big victory in South Carolina.
All polls in South Carolina show Trump leading, although they differ over the size of his margin ahead of the next two candidates, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rubio. In Nevada, where polls are scarcer, Sanders and Clinton appear to be in a dead heat. The Vermont senator has appealed to younger Hispanics to support his candidacy to counter claims that he cannot attract minority votes.
South Carolina’s Republican primary has a history of identifying the eventual nominee and often embracing the establishment’s choice of candidates. That pattern was broken four years ago when former House speaker Newt Gingrich handily defeated Mitt Romney.
This weekend marks one of the few times when the Democratic and Republican calendars diverge. Republicans will caucus in Nevada on Tuesday; Democrats will have their primary in South Carolina on Feb. 27.
As the leading outsiders in the presidential race, Trump and Sanders continue to underscore the frustrations with politics as usual on the left and right. Trump has tapped anti-immigration sentiment and has drawn energy from working-class white voters. Sanders has energized younger voters.
