BAGHDAD — After months of losing ground in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State group is showing signs of wear and tear, and its opponents say they have seen an increase in desertions among the extremists. But the jihadists appear to be lashing back with more terrorist and chemical attacks.
Under a stepped-up campaign of U.S.-led and Russian airstrikes, as well as ground assaults by multiple forces in each country, the jihadists are estimated to have lost about 40 percent of their territory in Iraq and more than 20 percent in Syria. At their highest point in the summer of 2014, the group had overrun nearly a third of each country, declaring a “caliphate” spanning from northwestern Syria to the outskirts of Baghdad.
At that time, the extremists were riding high, known for their courage, experience, readiness to die and brutality. Now, those battling them on the ground say they appear to be flagging.
“What we are witnessing is that Daesh are not as determined as they used to be,” Lt. Col. Fares al-Bayoush, commander of a Syrian rebel faction, said, using an Arabic acronym to refer to the Islamic State. His 1,300-strong Fursan al-Haq Brigade has been fighting against the Islamic State and Syrian government forces for more than a year.
“Now there are members who surrender, there are some who defect. In the past, they used to come blow themselves up,” he said.
Brett McGurk, President Barack Obama’s envoy to the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State, said last week at a conference in northern Iraq that Islamic State desertions have increased recently and more are expected, but he did not provide figures.
The setbacks began over a year ago, when the fighters were forced out of the northern Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani by local Kurdish forces backed by U.S.-led airstrikes.
In all of 2015, the jihadists lost 14 percent of their territory in Syria, according to IHS, an analysis group that monitors the conflict. In the past three months, they lost another 8 percent, a sign that the erosion is accelerating. The IHS figure roughly matches an estimate of a 20 percent loss given last week by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.
Deadly attacks in Turkey that killed scores of people also spurred Ankara to tighten its closure of the border, making it difficult for the extremists to cross into Syria.
In an effort to squeeze the group’s finances, coalition and Russian warplanes in Syria began increasingly targeting oil assets in November. The Islamic State has since had to cut salaries and benefits for fighters.
Last week, Iraqi, Syrian and U.S. officials confirmed that prominent Islamic State military leader Omar al-Shishani died of his wounds from a U.S. airstrike in northeastern Syria this month. U.S. special forces also recently captured the head of the unit researching chemical weapons in Iraq, and airstrikes have targeted the group’s chemical weapons infrastructure.
“As bad things start to happen, the less motivated, less disciplined, less radical elements of the force break and run,” U.S. Army Col. Steve Warren said. “We’re going to keep seeing this.”
Still, these developments do not necessarily make the Islamic State less of a threat.
In both Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State has launched some of its deadliest suicide attacks in recent weeks as well as a number of chemical weapons attacks.
