SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — In Chicago, expectations are soaring like a highrise as the Cubs chase their first World Series title since 1908.
What’s not to like? The Cubs have the hippest manager in baseball, Joe Maddon. They added outfielder Jason Heyward, second baseman Ben Zobrist and right-handed starter John Lackey via free agency. A year ago they made it all the way to the National League Championship Series before falling to the New York Mets.
The competition, though, is stiff to reach the World Series. The Cubs have to tangle with perennial contender St. Louis in their own division; the Mets have the best starting pitching in the major leagues; the dysfunctional Dodgers have money, talent and a new manager in Dave Roberts; and the Giants appear poised to rebound.
And don’t forget about the Diamondbacks, who are all in. They stunned the baseball world by signing Zack Greinke to a $206.5 million, six-year contract, then soon after added right-hander Shelby Miller in a trade.
Central
This is the best division in baseball, again. Last season, it became the first division to have the top-three team records in the majors: St. Louis (100-62), Pittsburgh (98-64) and the Cubs (97-65). The gap between the top three and the bottom two will only grow wider this season as Cincinnati and Milwaukee slog through rebuilding programs.
The Cardinals (NL-best 2.94 ERA last season) always pitch well, the Cubs have more star power and the Pirates have balance and the best bullpen in the division.
1. Chicago Cubs
2015: 97-65, third place, wild card, lost to Mets in NLCS
They added impact players to a team that includes NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta, rookie of the year third baseman Kris Bryant and two-time all-star first baseman Anthony Rizzo.
Signing Heyward (eight years, $184 million) and Lackey (two years, $32 million) away from the Cardinals was a big blow for St. Louis. Nine Cubs reached double figures in home runs last season, most in the NL. However, the free-swinging Cubs also led the majors with 9.4 strikeouts per game.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
2015: 100-62, first place, lost to Cubs in division series
St. Louis is going for its fourth consecutive NL central crown. Their pitching is aging but the Cardinals always manage to piece together a solid rotation. Right-hander Adam Wainwright, 34, healed from a torn Achilles tendon last April, appears primed for a big comeback season.Free-agent pickup Mike Leake cushioned the blow of losing Lackey.
In the outfield, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Matt Holliday are all capable of hitting 20 home runs. Behind the plate, the incomparable Yadier Molina is on track for opening day after recovering from a pair of thumb operations.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
2015: 98-64, second place, lost to Cubs in wild-card game
Manager Clint Hurdle’s club has made three consecutive playoff appearances but may trouble getting back.
Though they kept closer Mark Melancon (51 saves last year), they lost first baseman Pedro Alvarez and second baseman Neil Walker to free agency. Pittsburgh’s hopes rest on a dynamic outfield built around perennial MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, and with a terrific bullpen.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
2015: 68-94, fourth place
New general manager David Stearns will field trade offers for catcher Jonathan Lucroy as he looks to rebuild.
Shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia offers hope. With the addition of Chase Anderson, the return of Matt Garza from injury and Wily Peralta, the Brewers’ rotation won’t be a complete disaster.
5. Cincinnati Reds
2015: 64-98, fifth place
How dire are things in Cincinnati? 100 losses are possible.
The Reds insist they aren’t tanking, but they launched a major tear-down movement after the All-Star Game at Great American Ball Park last July, trading right-handers Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and left fielder Marlon Byrd during the season. Then they dealt third baseman Todd Frazier and closer Aroldis Chapman in the offseason.
East
This is a rich-team, poor-team division. The Mets and Nationals are two of the best in the National League, while the Braves and Phillies are two of the worst. The talented but directionless Marlins make up the middle class.
The Nationals were favored by many to win the World Series last season, but they imploded in spectacular fashion, squandering an MVP season by outfielder Bryce Harper and missing the playoffs entirely. Expect Washington to bounce back, but the Mets remain formidable. In starters Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, the Mets have a fearsome foursome on the mound.
1. New York Mets
2015: 90-72, first place, lost to Kansas City in World Series
Following their first World Series berth in 15 years, the Mets could be even better this season, especially if another talented young starter, Zack Wheeler (11-11, 3.54 ERA in 2014), can return from Tommy John surgery by midseason.
The lineup — anchored by right fielder Curtis Granderson, new second baseman Neil Walker and center fielder Yoenis Cespedes — is talented and balanced. The Mets’ big flaw, one that was exposed by the Royals in the World Series, remains their so-so defense.
2. Washington Nationals
2015: 83-79, second place
Washington is hoping first-year manager Dusty Baker can spark the team to play up to its considerable potential. Baker has seven trips to the playoffs as a manager.
This is a team built around Bryce Harper and a solid rotation, led by right-handers Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The acquisition of Daniel Murphy at second moves Danny Espinosa to shortstop, where the Nats hope to vastly improve after a league-high 28 errors last season.
3. Miami Marlins
2015: 71-91, third place
From new manager Don Mattingly and new hitting coach Barry Bonds, to defending NL batting champion Dee Gordon and titanic slugger Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins have appeal.
Yet despite a decent young rotation that includes ace right-hander Jose Fernandez, the Marlins look like also-rans again. FYI: Miami is 90 games under .500 since the team moved into Marlins Park in 2012.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
2015: 63-99, fifth place
Philadelphia’s mini-dynasty is now a faded memory. Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are all long gone. What remains is first baseman Ryan Howard and his big contract and dwindling production.
Third baseman Maikel Franco, 23, and right-hander Aaron Nola, 22, are building blocks for down the road.
5. Atlanta Braves
2015: 67-95, fourth place
Their 95 losses last year were the team’s most since 1990, and a 100-loss season is a real possibility in the final season at Turner Field.
The biggest story of Atlanta’s offseason was the deal GM John Coppolella engineered with Arizona. In exchange for young right-hander Shelby Miller, the Braves got shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson (No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft), Triple-A righty Aaron Blair and young outfielder Ender Inciarte, a defensive force who also batted .303 and swiped 21 bases.
West
This is a three-team race between the Giants, Diamondbacks and Dodgers.
The big-spending Dodgers have won just one post-season series in the last three years, despite a total payroll in that span of about $715 million. Greinke, runner-up in the Cy Young voting, opted out of his Dodgers contract and surprised everyone by signing with division rival Arizona. The Giants, who spent $220 million to sign right-handers Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, match the D-backs for the division’s best rotation.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2015: 79-83, third place
GM Dave Stewart and baseball operations chief Tony La Russa believe the pitching trio of Greinke, Miller and a healthy Patrick Corbin makes Arizona a threat to win it all.
The lineup is talented, too, anchored by budding star A.J. Pollock in center, perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt at first and David Peralta in right.
2. San Francisco Giants
2015: 84-78, second place
It’s not just the rotation — anchored by Madison Bumgarner, Ceuto and Samardzija — that make the Giants formidable.
With catcher Buster Posey, shortstop Brandon Crawford and second baseman Joe Panik in their prime, the Giants are stronger up the middle than when they captured World Series titles in 2010, ’12 and ’14.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
2015: 92-70, first place, lost to Mets in division series
It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers react to Roberts, who has been charged with getting more production out of mercurial outfielder Yasiel Puig.
Free-agent pickups Kenta Maeda (Japan) and Scott Kazmir will try to fill the void created by Greinke’s departure and provide a second punch behind ace Clayton Kershaw.
L.A. may start slow. Left-hander Brett Anderson (back surgery) is out three to five months and Hyun-Jin Ryu (left shoulder) won’t be ready until mid-May. Andre Ethier was set to be the starter in left field until he fouled off a pitch in spring training and broke his right leg. He will be sidelined for three months.
4. San Diego Padres
2015: 74-88, fourth place
The Padres spent big during the 2014-15 offseason — and promptly flopped. So they are rebuilding again.
The top three in the rotation — Tyson Ross, James Shields and Andrew Cashner — will have to pitch well to keep the Padres in games, because this is an offensively challenged ballclub. San Diego needs significantly more pop from right fielder Matt Kemp and first basemen Wil Myers.
5. Colorado Rockies
2015: 68-94, fifth place
Colorado is likely headed for its sixth consecutive losing season.
There has been much-needed improvement in the bullpen, where the club acquired lefty Jake McGee and right-handers Jason Motte and Chad Qualls. New left fielder Gerardo Parra gives the team defensive and speed on the bases, and rookie shortstop Trevor Story has star potential but weak starting pitching is a huge concern. Again.
