Near the end of the primary season, Republicans and Democrats are grappling with the same questions: What kind of candidate would Donald Trump be in a general election? How should Hillary Clinton run against him?
At Trump headquarters, where the principal focus remains on securing the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination, officials are thinking about the shape of the fall campaign.
That includes the core issues of his message, the look and feel of the Republican convention this summer, electoral map strategies and what changes, if any, the New York billionaire might need to make — stylistically or otherwise — to expand his appeal.
Officials say two things are not likely to change. First, Trump will continue to be outspoken and prepared to say unpopular or imprudent things.
“What has been a certainty in this race is that Mr. Trump is going to be Mr. Trump,” said campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. “That is to say, his appeal has been as a person who tells it like it is.”
Second, officials say, Trump’s unpredictability, or what critics regard as his lack of discipline, will prove to be an asset against Clinton, whom they regard as a more conventional candidate.
“Mr. Trump is a candidate who has the ability to change the narrative at any moment,” Lewandowski said. “Any other candidate would run a traditional campaign against Hillary Clinton.”
Clinton’s team and those at outside groups allied with her campaign are making similar assessments. They’re looking for opportunities to expand the map into some traditional Republican states while going to school on mistakes made by Trump’s rivals during the primaries.
Clinton allies see Trump as a deeply flawed candidate with limited options to remake himself. He has higher negative ratings than any past nominee in either party since polling began. Clinton’s camp doubts he wants to change his style.
“I’m not expecting a lot of Etch A Sketch with this guy,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster and an adviser to Priorities USA, the pro-Clinton super PAC. “Not that it wouldn’t be the right thing to do.”
Garin was referring to the children’s toy that, with the shake of a hand, erases an image and offers a clean slate to create another.
As a result, Clinton’s team is preparing for what could be one of the nastiest campaigns in recent memory.
“Hillary set out a year ago to be a champion for everyday people and to help families finally start getting ahead again in this economy,” said Robby Mook, Clinton’s campaign manager. “That’s what she’s going to keep talking about in the general election. … Trump, I’m sure, will try to bully and throw out insults. That’s not going to derail her.”
Some current surveys, as well as electoral map analyses, suggest that Trump would be an almost certain loser against Clinton and that his defeat would be sizable enough to take many other Republicans down with him. That’s the argument of Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, Trump’s last remaining opponents.
Other recent polls show the former secretary of state with only a narrow lead, which gives Republicans hope that once the two nominating conventions are over, fears of a Clinton presidency will drive many in their party to support Trump.
Still, even Republicans who see strengths in Trump’s candidacy look toward the fall with great uncertainty.
“He has the biggest upside and the biggest downside of any candidate I’ve ever seen,” said former House speaker Newt Gingrich. “If everything comes together and clicks, he’ll be a historic figure. And if everything goes sour, we’ll think of Goldwater and McGovern as medium-level disasters.”
Gingrich was referring to Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Democrat George McGovern in 1972, both of whom lost their presidential elections by landslide margins.
Some leading Republicans say privately that unless Trump changes his approach before the general election, the party is destined to be outside the White House looking for another four or eight years.
“Is he just as happy as he can be and doesn’t think he wants to change?” a former Republican officeholder asked anonymously. “If he is, he’s not going to win.”
Gingrich said that on the basis of his reading of Trump’s record, the New York businessman has principles of action in which he truly believes. “These are not habits or personality quirks,” he said.
Dan Pfeiffer, former senior adviser to President Barack Obama, said Trump presents a potentially unconventional target.
“I think his unpredictability challenges all the conventions of campaign strategy,” he said. “Everyone who’s ever run a campaign on the Clinton side has a playbook. They’ve never had to run against anyone like Trump.”
That doesn’t change Pfeiffer’s broader analysis that Trump, in the end, cannot win the general election or that Clinton won’t be prepared to parry the attacks.
Another Democratic strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer thoughts about how Clinton could run against Trump, said the GOP candidate benefited immensely from the failure of his rivals to attack his weaknesses early enough or hard enough.
“They didn’t go after him,” the strategist said. “They didn’t stand up to him. … Nobody’s going to do that in a general election.”
