These NBA playoffs, where crazy is the new normal, has kicked me in the kiwi fruit with an idea that also might rock your view of the pro basketball universe:
The Nuggets can bring a championship home to Denver. But they must dare to be different.
“You can’t just chase trends. The NBA is a copycat league, but that doesn’t always mean itap the best model to follow,” general manager Tim Connelly told me Wednesday. “You can win numerous ways in the NBA.”
We will get to my crazy notion of why the Nuggets should think big and act boldly in due time.
But first letap make fun of me. As the Golden State Warriors have gone from the lofty heights of Air Jordan and the Chicago Bulls to the brink of elimination faster than you can say Russell Westbrook, Connelly has taken delight in reminding me what was true in the NBA yesterday can make you look like a fool tomorrow.
“Do you know Kiz hates Russell Westbrook?” Connelly playfully asked Nuggets coach Michael Malone, as we stood in the Pepsi Center practice gym after a workout for draft prospects.
“Well, I hate Westbrook too,” deadpanned Malone, setting up the punch line. “But only because we have to play against him. You know how hard that is?”
We all laughed. The joke was on me. I don’t hate Westbrook. But in the internet age, where if you do not adore a superstar you are cast as a hater, Connelly kids me for stating years ago that Oklahoma City would never win a championship, because although Westbrook is crazy talented he can also be too crazy selfish to give up the rock to teammate Kevin Durant at clutch time.
Well, with the Thunder up 3-1 in their best-of-seven series against Golden State, and Westbrook outshining Stephen Curry, it looks like maybe I should start searching the internet for recipes on how to make crow most palatable. What makes Westbrook a force of nature is he dares to be different then shouts his success to the world.
So what has this knucklehead learned?
Never say never.
What wins in basketball in the present does a remarkably poor job of predicting what will succeed in the future.
And the Nuggets’ only real shot to reach the top is by creating their own path with the same fearless tenacity Westbrook attacks the rim.
Advanced metrics have revolutionized sports, revealing that real basketball genius is best fostered when using both sides of the brain. But, at this point, analytics are far more efficient at quantifying why a team succeeds than predicting why a Warriors team that won a record 73 times in the regular season might be vulnerable in the playoffs.
“If you look at the last 10 championship teams, you can’t say, ‘This is the way you win.’ There is no one way,” Connelly said.
While there’s no doubt the 3-point shot has changed the math of winning, even that trend does not dictate which team wins it all. Dallas won with a classic shooter (Dirk Nowitzki), a classic rim-protector (Tyson Chandler) and classic point guard (Jason Kidd). Miami took home back-to-back trophies with superstar basketball that former commissioner David Stern championed so the famous could make everyone in the league rich. Grumpy old Gregg Popovich convinced San Antonio to honor the extra pass in what looked like a remake of “Hoosiers.” And Golden State played outside-in basketball with two guards who could shoot over the rainbow.
If you can detect a distinct pattern there, give me some of what you’re smoking.
The Nuggets can rise by being everything the Warriors are not. Why not be too big to handle? In Nikola Jokic, Denver has a big man who could run the offense through the high post in a manner that once worked for Bill Walton and the Portland Trailblazers. And the big point guard for Emmanuel Mudiay to emulate is Kidd. “You can be big in the NBA, if you’re skilled and big,” Connelly said.
In the trade market, Denver cannot be afraid to take a shot on an obvious talent whose value has been deflated by a bad attitude or a bad season. “In talent acquisition, thatap sometimes the best time to get a guy,” Connelly said. He did not mention players who fall in this category, so I will bounce two guys who fit the mold: DeMarcus Cousins and Joakim Noah.
In a year when the Nuggets hold five draft picks, they can afford to gamble on upside, without regard to roster needs. Denver selects seventh, 15th and 19th in the first round. During the past seven years, Curry went No. 7, Kawhi Leonard was taken No. 15 and Avery Bradley dropped to No. 19. Were those players outliers? Yes. But playing safe seldom scores big.
The Nuggets can never be the Warriors.
Daring to be different is the only way Denver can be the league’s next big thing.
