The Colorado football team enters Saturday’s game at Arizona with as much as its had on the table in at least 15 years.
The No. 16 Buffaloes (7-2, 5-1 in the Pac-12) have entered what the program is calling the “gold games,” four November matchups that will determine just how special this turnaround season can become.
The Buffs have already won the first of those four games, an ugly, gritty 20-10 win over UCLA last Thursday. Up next: Arizona, which is winless in Pac-12 play. That is followed by home games against Washington State (Nov. 19) and Utah (Nov. 26).
So what exactly is at stake during this final stretch? Here’s a closer look:
A division title
The clearest path is simple: win its next three games and CU will be the Pac-12 South division champion. The Buffs are the only team remaining in the six-team South with only one Pac-12 loss, thus the control-your-own-destiny position CU enjoys.
Things get tricky if the Buffs drop a game. Utah and USC head into this weekend with two Pac-12 losses. The Trojans, by virtue of their head-to-head win over CU this season, would win a tiebreaker should those teams end the season with the same league record. USC plays at No. 4 Washington on Saturday and then closes at UCLA and at home against non-conference opponent Notre Dame.
Utah’s closing schedule: at Arizona State (Thursday), home against Oregon (Nov. 19) and at CU in the regular-season finale on Nov. 26.
In short: CU can win the South with one loss in its next three games. But in that scenario the Buffs would need USC to have three league losses and would either need to beat Utah or have the Utes lose a third league game elsewhere.
Lose two of its next three games and the path to a division title for CU becomes very difficult.
What does the postseason look like?
If the Buffs do win the South division, they’ll play in the Pac-12 championship game on Dec. 2 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., against either Washington or Washington State.
There are plenty of moving parts to be decided over the next four weeks that would determine what would come next. Make it to the league title game and the Buffs would have a good shot at a trip to one of the Pac-12’s top two bowls: the Rose Bowl (Jan. 2 in Pasadena, Calif.) or the Alamo Bowl (in San Antonio on Dec. 29).
All of CU’s bowl projections are dependent on, among other things: Whether CU wins the Pac-12 title game; the Buffs’ final record; whether Washington reaches the College Football Playoff; how Washington State (currently undefeated in the Pac-12) finishes the season.
Could Colorado enter the College Football Playoff picture?
It’s not likely. If CU were to win its remaining three regular-season games and win the Pac-12 title game that would result in such a closing stretch, the Buffs would be 11-2 and likely ranked in the top 10 but have little shot at making the playoffs.
College Football Playoffs
Colorado again is in the Top 25 AP poll, also coming in at No. 12 in the College Football Playoff poll.