The most common piece of advice being tossed in the direction of these days isn’t really advice at all.
The words being shouted from the airwaves, bar stools and all corners of the internet by Broncos fans are more plea than suggestion for the Broncos’ general manager, and they go something like this: You can’t miss with the No. 5 pick!
The Broncos, for the first time since selecting with the second overall choice in 2011, are in position to add a game-changing player to their franchise at the top of the draft. But is No. 5 truly can’t-miss territory? What does history say about the success that can be found with that pick? And can the Broncos draw on clues from the past in making their selection, should they choose to keep that No. 5 pick on April 26?
An examination of the past 30 picks at the fifth spot, from cornerback Rickey Dixon in 1988 to wide receiver Corey Davis last year, reveal some interesting trends, cautionary tales and, yes, hope that one great choice can change a franchise for years to come. Here are five things to know about the No. 5 pick:
1. Success far from guaranteed
Three players selected in the fifth position of NFL draft since 1988 are now enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame: cornerback Deion Sanders (2011), the late linebacker Junior Seau (2015) and running back LaDainian Tomlinson (2017). Those three players combined for 25 selections. Another former fifth overall pick who will likely be fitted for a gold jacket, cornerback Patrick Peterson, has been selected to seven Pro Bowls.
Success outside that group is mixed. The other 26 players drafted fifth overall in that period have been named to a combined 20 Pro Bowls. That number, of course, includes recent selections still early in what look to be promising careers. Three of the last four No. 5 picks — linebacker (2014), offensive lineman Brandon Scherff (2015) and cornerback Jalen Ramsey (2016) — have already registered six Pro Bowl selections among them, and plenty more appear to be in sight.
Still, there are 15 players selected in the No. 5 spot in the last 30 drafts who never made a Pro Bowl. Only one of those players, the rookie wide receiver Davis, was still playing in the NFL last season. The number of Pro Bowl appearances a player racks up certainly isn’t the only baseline for success, but the number does show that even at the top of the draft, the guarantee of production can be elusive.
2. Cornering the market
The position most frequently taken with the No. 5 pick over the past 30 years has been cornerback. Nine of them have been selected at that spot since 1988. Throw in safeties Eric Berry (2010) and Sean Taylor (2004), and more than one third of the fifth overall picks in the last three decades have been defensive backs.
The cornerbacks picked at No. 5 have also yielded impressive longevity. Excluding Ramsey and Peterson, who are still active, the average career length of cornerbacks taken fifth overall is 11.3 seasons. If long-term impact is an important factor in selecting a player in the top five, history suggests the cornerback spot could be a safe bet.
3. Quarterback a rare choice
Perhaps the biggest question surrounding the Broncos’ draft plan is whether they will use the fifth pick on a quarterback after signing veteran to a two-year deal last month. As for what the historical data says about taking a quarterback at No. 5, there simply isn’t much available.
Only two quarterbacks have been selected fifth overall since 1988: Kerry Collins (1995) and (2009). Collins led the Giants to the in the 2000 season and Sanchez guided the Jets to back-to-back AFC championship games in 2009 and 2010, but neither player was able to become a true franchise quarterback. Even when taking the fifth pick’s neighbors, Nos. 4 and 6, into account, only (No. 4 in 2004) has become a true franchise cornerstone in the last 30 years.
That data gives credence to the idea that, even at the top of the draft, the historical volatility of quarterback success makes selecting one a major risk, if not a total crap shoot.
4. Patience needed
Davis, the Titans’ selection at No. 5 in 2017, became the first player drafted at that spot not to be selected to the NFL all-rookie team since defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey in 2008. Dorsey could fairly be considered one of the handful of “busts” from the fifth spot over the last 30 years, but many others who started slowly eventually flourished.
Two of the three Hall of Fame players drafted at No. 5, Seau and Sanders, also missed out on all-rookie honors. So did running back Ricky Williams, who, despite not fully meeting the lofty expectations set for him, had four 1,000-yard seasons in his career, including an NFL-high 1,853 rushing yards in 2002.
5. Twice as nice?
The Broncos would do well to replicate the success of their only other No. 5 pick in the franchise’s NFL draft history. In 1972, Denver selected tight end Riley Odoms out of the University of Houston.
Odoms earned three Pro Bowl appearances and two first-team All-Pro nods while playing all 12 seasons of his career with Denver. He played in 153 games for the Broncos and caught 41 touchdown passes.
Because spreadsheets are always fun, here's a more visual representation of how the No. 5 picks of the last 30 years have fared … I qualified eight of these picks as "busts," though that is obviously a subjective distinction.
— Nick Kosmider (@NickKosmider)
