After an abnormally warm and dry week across northeast Colorado, snow chances will return to the Front Range on Wednesday as a fast-moving storm system could bring a few inches of snow and impact two different commutes.
Right now, the storm doesn’t look particularly menacing, but it could be enough to disrupt two drive times on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
As of Monday evening, analysis showed that this storm may lean toward the lighter side of a one-to-four-inch snow event, but a handful of computer model simulations late Monday also leaned closer to the three-to-four-inch range.
There are two higher-end scenarios that could produce snow totals on the higher end of the scale: One, this storm system will feature rapidly falling temperatures, which could increase snow ratios and therefore increase snowfall amounts. If snow falls closer to 32 degrees, it tends to be warmer, heavier and more compact. The colder the snow, the lighter and fluffier it gets, and it also tends to accumulate more quickly with the same amount of equivalent liquid. In short: cold weather, same moisture, more snow.
The second is what led to the last and relatively unexpected paralyzing snow event just a few days ago: Hyper-local, intense bands of heavy snowfall that can drop several inches of snow in one area, and leave areas just a few miles away essentially snow-free. Figuring out exactly where these will set up is part of the challenge of the forecast, but a developing area of low pressure to our southeast will likely lead to some of these bands pivoting through the urban corridor.
Regardless of the exact amounts of snow, Thursday morning will probably be messy. The Wednesday evening commute could also be impacted, but right now it looks like the higher impacts will be on Thursday morning.
The relatively fast speed of this storm system will give us only a limited window for accumulating snow, most likely on Wednesday evening and into Thursday morning.
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s as the snow starts and quickly cool into the teens from there, meaning snow will likely stick to roadways right away. Computer models are homing in on a Wednesday early afternoon start time, which would likely mean a slick drive home. Snow amounts don’t look too hefty for the evening drive – meaningful snow may hold off until after dark.
This is a so-called upslope type of snow event, which means easterly winds will force the air to rise in and around Denver, and the rising motion of the air will condense into snow. This scenario will, as usual, likely favor our higher western suburbs. Specifically, western Jefferson, Boulder and Larimer counties may well end up with closer to three-to-six inches of snow. Denver, however, is looking at more of a one-to-four-inch snow event.
The and models in particular also bring a fairly hefty amount of snow to northern Colorado and closer to the Wyoming state line, with up to a half foot possible in far northern parts of Colorado. Again, this probably means the foothills west of Denver and places like Fort Collins and Loveland stand a better chance at heftier accumulations.
Regardless of what we see, the mountains west of the Continental Divide are sure to get a ton of snow. With more of a southwesterly flow pumping in moisture from the Pacific Ocean, parts of the San Juan mountains could pick up several feet of snow from this storm system by Thursday.
Skies will clear later Thursday and temperatures will bounce back into the 40s by Friday before another possible snow chance on Sunday.
Chris Bianchi is a meteorologist with WeatherNation TV.
