Whoever was the first to spit out the cliche “it’s always darkest before dawn” would have made a great 21st-century college basketball fan.
It is an annual tradition to complain about the teams populating the edge of the field, and this year is like any other. And while there’s no calculation for this, it often feels like the end of February provides the peak of the grumbling.
Right now, it feels like a struggle to find 36 at-large teams to fill out the field. There are obvious warts associated with nearly any at-large team on the No. 11 line or below.
Then the conference tournaments arrive and the tension built into those two weeks tends to (rightfully) get more attention.
Invariably, the committee will select a full 68-team field, because that is its job. Inevitably, a few teams will get hot at just the right time and secure a place in the tournament (Florida , which has won of four in a row and has Vanderbilt and Georgia up next, is a prime example).
And, of course, the conference tournament results could force some quality teams into the at-large field and bump some so-so teams into the NIT.
It happens every March. And, thankfully, it’s dawn is just about upon us.
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Field Notes
Last four included: Central Florida, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Temple
First four on the outside: Alabama, Utah State, Nebraska, Saint Mary’s
Next four on the outside: Dayton, Creighton, Georgetown, UNC Greensboro
Moving in: Rider, Temple, Wright State
Moving out: Nebraska, Northern Kentucky, Quinnipiac
Conference call: ACC (9), Big Ten (8), Big 12 (8), SEC (7), Big East (5), American Athletic (4), Pac-12 (2)
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Bracket Projection
East Region vs. West, South vs. Midwest
East Region
Columbia, S.C.
(1) Duke vs. winner of (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Norfolk State vs. SOUTHWESTERN/Prairie View A&M
(8) St. John’s vs. (9) Florida
San Jose
(5) MOUNTAIN WEST/Nevada vs. (12) Minnesota-Temple winner
(4) Iowa State vs. (13) IVY/Yale
Des Moines
(3) Purdue vs. (14) SUMMIT/South Dakota State
(6) Louisville vs. (11) Butler
Jacksonville, Fla.
(7) Cincinnati vs. (10) TCU
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) SUN BELT/Texas State
Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed despite the loss to North Carolina. How much Zion Williamson’s absence affects the Blue Devils’ long-term seeding is tied to two things: Their results without him and how long he’s out. . . . Temple noses out Alabama for the last spot in the field, but both of those teams are living largely off one high-end victory (Houston for Temple, Kentucky for Alabama). . . .
This is as low as Louisville has been in a while, but it would still qualify as a great seeding given the modest expectations entering the season. . . . TCU ‘s chances of making it to the finish line with a second consecutive NCAA bid went up with Saturday’s victory at Iowa State.
South Region
Columbia, S.C.
(1) ACC/Virginia vs. (16) SOUTHLAND/Sam Houston State
(8) Mississippi vs. (9) ATLANTIC 10/VCU
Salt Lake City
(5) Maryland vs. (12) OHIO VALLEY/Belmont
(4) Kansas vs. (13) WESTERN ATHLETIC/New Mexico State
Tulsa
(3) LSU vs. (14) BIG SKY/Montana
(6) Florida State vs. (11) Oklahoma
Des Moines
(7) Villanova vs. (10) Clemson
(2) Michigan vs. (15) HORIZON/Wright State
VCU shouldn’t feel safe just yet, but it is getting closer to the point that it could afford to trip up in the Atlantic 10 tournament and still be in the field. . . . Maryland is solidly on the No. 5 line for now after handling Iowa and Ohio State last week. The Terrapins probably have a ceiling of a No. 3 seed, perhaps a 2 if they win out. . . .
LSU is 22-5, owns a top-10 strength of schedule (both overall and nonconference) and is 7-2 in Quadrant 1 games. The Tigers are set up to be treated quite well by the committee. . . . Villanova has looked unusually vulnerable of late, and it is an unremarkable 3-5 in Quadrant 1 games. Still, the Wildcats aren’t in any danger of tumbling too far after their three-game slide.
Midwest Region
Columbus, Ohio
(1) SEC/Kentucky vs. (16) PATRIOT/Bucknell
(8) Baylor vs. (9) N.C. State
Hartford, Conn.
(5) Kansas State vs. (12) Central Florida-Seton Hall winner
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) COLONIAL/Hofstra
Tulsa
(3) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Houston vs. (14) BIG WEST/UC Irvine
(6) MID-AMERICAN/Buffalo vs. (11) Arizona State
Jacksonville, Fla.
(7) Iowa vs. (10) Texas
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/Radford
Terrible nonconference schedule or not, it’s getting hard to imagine a way for N.C. State to play its way out of the field. A couple more victories should provide the finishing touches to the Wolfpack’s postseason résumé. . . . Central Florida ‘s hopes hinge on their last four games. The Knights will visit South Florida and Houston, play host to Cincinnati and then visit Temple. For a team with zero Quadrant 1 victories, that closing stretch could be a godsend or a ticket to the NIT. . . .
Arizona State Coach Bobby Hurley facing the school that gave him his first head coaching job (Buffalo) was purely coincidental in this projection. The Sun Devils slid into this region only as part of a shuffling that happened after Oklahoma’s loss on Monday. . . . Keep an eye on Texas and how it plays without the suspended Kerwin Roach. It could impact the Longhorns’ seeding if they struggle and he doesn’t return.
West Region
Salt Lake City
(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. winner of (16) METRO ATLANTIC/Rider vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Francis (Pa.)
(8) Auburn vs. (9) Ohio State
San Jose
(5) Virginia Tech vs. (12) ATLANTIC SUN/Lipscomb
(4) BIG 12/Texas Tech vs. (13) CONFERENCE USA/Old Dominion
Hartford, Conn.
(3) BIG EAST/Marquette vs. (14) AMERICA EAST/Vermont
(6) Mississippi State vs. (11) SOUTHERN/Wofford
Columbus, Ohio
(7) PAC-12/Washington vs. (10) Syracuse
(2) BIG TEN/Michigan State vs. (15) MISSOURI VALLEY/Loyola Chicago
No league in Division I has a wackier regular season race than the Metro Atlantic. Rider is one of five teams tied with six losses atop the conference. No MAAC team is better than 11-6 or worse than 5-11. . . . Texas Tech takes over as the projected Big 12 winner after Kansas State’s loss on Monday. . . .
A strong finish for Marquette will probably nudge it ahead of one of the Big Ten teams currently ticketed for Des Moines. . . . I finally bumped Washington up to the No. 7 line. The Huskies, who will clinch the outright Pac-12 regular season title with one more victory, won’t get much of a chance to improve their profile the next two weeks visiting California and Stanford before welcoming Oregon and Oregon State to Seattle.
