My colleague Patrick Saunders and I like to joke about whether this year’s Rocktober is currentlyon or off, based on how the streaky Rockies are and how the fan base is reacting to the club’s roller-coaster play.
Well, entering the second half of the season, fan sentiment is certainly leaning toward off.
Fangraphs’ latest playoff probabilities reflect that glass-half-full feeling. Colorado (44-45) has never made the postseason with a losing record at the all-star break. The Rockies enter play against the Reds this weekend in fourth place in the National League West with an 11.6 percent chance to win a wild-card berth, according to Fangraphs.
Colorado needs to elevate its play big time in the second half in order to emerge from a large cluster of competing teams for one of two wild-card spots.
The Dodgers are running away with the West, while the Braves are holding off the Nationals and Phillies in the East, and the Central remains a four-team toss-up between the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, and Pirates. Not to mention: The Diamondbacks and the Padres are outperforming Colorado within its own division so far.
So just how good do the Rockies need to be to at least secure the second wild card?
At bare-bones minimum — if the baseball gods smile upon LoDo by wrecking its playoff rivals — I believe 86 wins could secure the second wild card outright. (Last year, the Rockies got the second wild card with 91 wins; the year before that, 87.) So that means the absolute floor for Colorado’s second-half is 42-31 (.575) in the remaining 73 games.
That means no more treading water. That means winning multiple series in a row. That means not trading off eight-game winning and losing streaks. That uphill battle begins Friday for Colorado against Cincinnati at , where the club must dominate through September in order to beat the odds stacked against another Rocktober.
— , The Denver Post
What’s on Tap
- Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 p.m. Friday, ATTRM
- Cincinnati Reds, 6:10 p.m. Saturday, ATTRM
- Cincinnati Reds, 1:10 p.m. Sunday, ATTRM
Must-Read
Kiszla: Big reason the shine is off Rockies’ season? D.J. LeMahieu, the all-star Jeff Bridich foolishly let get away.
You can’t buy happiness in baseball. But you can undermine World Series dreams by being cheap. Read more…
Newman: There’s no denying juiced baseballs are behind MLB’s historic home run surge
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There’s an old expression in sports when there’s a particular play or issue in question: The ball don’t lie. Make no mistake, baseballs aren’t lying this season. They’re juiced and there’s no denying it: Not by the historic home run surge, not by sabermetrics and certainly not by the eye test. Read more…
How Nolan Arenado’s off-field discipline made Rockies’ third baseman a 5-time all-star
“Here’s what sets Nolan apart. He’s turned baseball into his lifestyle, more so than almost anybody,” said Rockies right fielder Charlie Blackmon, Arenado’s close friend and fellow all-star. “Everything Nolan does, all the decisions he makes, are based on the game the next day.” Read more…
Quick Hits
+ Saunders: What Rockies must do in the second half to make the playoffs.
+ Rockies podcast: Can Seunghwan Oh return from injury to be the Final Boss again?
+ Kyle Freeland improves command, confidence as he eyes return to Rockies.
+ “I’ll finish strong”: Rockies’ German Marquez aims for better second half after All-Star break.
+ Rockies’ Bud Black: Best is yet to come for German Marquez.
+ Rockies’ pitching prospect Ben Bowden blows save in 2019 MLB all-star Futures Game.
+ Yonathan Daza, Sam Hilliard and Roberto Ramos represent Rockies in Triple-A All-Star Game.
+ Rockies prospect Jack Wynkoop named Eastern League pitcher of week.
+Rockies Mailbag: Have a question about the team?Ask Patrick Saunders here.
+Want to chat about the Rockies?
By The Numbers
66-to-1
The Rockies’ odds to win the World Series, according to Bovada. Read more…
Parting Shot
Newman vs. Kiz: What trade could transform Rockies from pretenders to contenders?
General manager Jeff Bridich hasn’t made a blockbuster deadline deal for a high-profile starter or reliever in his tenure yet. Read more…
Get in Touch
If you see something thatap cause for question or have a comment, thought or suggestion, email me at jbailey@denverpost.comortweet me .
