Denver Broncos (2-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2), 11 a.m. MST, Sunday, CBS, 850 AM, 94.1 FM
Three Things to Watch
1. Third down pulse
The Broncos’ offense has fallen from 20th to 29th in third-down efficiency (29.7%) after going 2 of 14 against Tennessee and 1 of 13 against Kansas City. The Colts’ defense is 23rd on third down (43.3%).
2. Red zone defense
In the red zone, Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett has 13 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 102.7 rating. The Broncos’ defense is third in red zone touchdown rate (38.1%). Which team wins this strength vs. strength area will win the game.
3. Hamilton’s time
The trade of receiver Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco last Tuesday created a huge opportunity for second-year player DaeSean Hamilton. He had only 11 catches in the first seven games but moves up to No. 2.
Game Plan
When the Broncos run
The Broncos are 2-1 when they rush for at least 100 yards; 0-4 when they don’t. See the connection? If this offense can’t run it well, they’re cooked (see Kansas City game). Phillip Lindsay’s 433 yards puts him on the cusp for a 1,000-yard pace. The Broncos have 13 “bad” rushes (gain of one or fewer yards not including short-yardage) in the past two games. The Colts are led by linebacker Darius Leonard, who returned last week from a concussion, but the slight edge goes to Lindsay and Co.
Edge: Broncos.
When the Broncos pass
The Broncos’ passing game is a mess. Twenty-four sacks allowed. Only six touchdown passes. Just 10.9 yards per completion. And now they move forward without receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Although his one-catch games against the Chargers and Titans suggest a phasing out, he was still capable of making plays downfield. That falls even more on Courtland Sutton and particularly tight end Noah Fant, who had three drops in Week 7. But it starts with the protection. It must be better. Period.
Edge: Colts
When the Colts run
Running back Marlon Mack’s 515 yards rank ninth in the NFL and itap been all-or-very-little for him this year — games of 174 (Chargers) and 132 (Chiefs) yards, but four games of less than 75 yards. The Broncos’ surge in rush defense, led by Mike Purcell and Alexander Johnson, has been impressive. After the Week 4 loss to Jacksonville (allowed 269 yards), they were 30th in the league, but they have allowed only 154 yards in the last three games to move to 16th.
Edge: Broncos
When the Colts pass
The Broncos rank third in pass defense (195.3 yards per game), but 12 of their 13 sacks have come in two games. Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been sacked only seven times. Expect cornerback Chris Harris to be assigned to Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton. A tough matchup for the Broncos is running back Nyheim Hines, whose 19 catches are second on the team and often runs routes from out wide or the slot. He might be an assignment for nickel back Duke Dawson.
Edge: Colts
Special teams
Future Pro Football Hall of Fame kicker Adam Vinatieri has missed three extra-point and field goal attempts apiece this year. But the Broncos don’t deserve the special teams edge against anybody at this point. The Colts’ punt return game is ranked fifth (10.3-yard average) and they are eighth covering punts (4.9-yard average). The Broncos’ Diontae Spencer has 17 returns for a 7.6-yard average. Close your eyes if the Broncos decide to run another trick play on special teams like the fake punt disaster against the Chiefs.
Edge: Colts
Post Predictions
Mark Kiszla
Colts 20, Broncos 17
But after the loss, John Elway will declare Broncos are only a play or two from being a 6-2 football team.
Ryan O’Halloran
Colts 27, Broncos 20
Courtland Sutton celebrates Emmanuel Sanders’ departure with 135 yards receiving and two touchdowns, but Jacoby Brissett dives over the goal-line with a minute remaining to win it.
Kyle Newman
Colts 17, Broncos 10
Another woeful performance by the offense negates the performance of a Broncos’ defense that continues to make strides. Denver is held to under 100 yards rushing – again.
