If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, your odds of seeing one along the Front Range might be lower than you’d think.
Based on the official definition of having at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning, 45 of the 119 Christmas days in Denver’s recorded history have gone down as a white Christmas, .
That means Denver has about a 38% chance of seeing a white Christmas each year, based on the city’s official climatological record.
In recent years, however, Denver’s been on something of a hot streak when it comes to white Christmases. Eight of the last 14 years have featured at least an inch of snow on Christmas Day, and 15 of Denver’s last 30 Christmases — exactly half — have seen a white Christmas.
Denver’s last white Christmas came in 2017, when an inch of snow was officially on the ground. Temperatures topped out at 19 degrees on that Christmas Day nearly two years ago. Last year’s Christmas was, by contrast, fairly mild, with a high of 47 degrees.
As far as snow actually falling on Christmas Day itself, that happens only about 15% of the time in Denver. Only 20 out of Denver’s 119 Christmases of meteorological record have featured measurable snowfall, the last coming in 2015 (2.3 inches of snow fell on Christmas Day that year).
Not in Denver? Here’s a look at some select Colorado cities’ chances of seeing a white Christmas, based on data from the :
Boulder: 46%
Brighton: 36%
Byers: 48%
Castle Rock: 45%
Colorado Springs: 21%
Denver (Stapleton): 40%
Fort Collins: 34%
Lakewood: 41%
Loveland: 38%
Northglenn: 31%
Pueblo: 19%
Wheat Ridge: 49%
Of course, if you head up anywhere into the mountains (Fraser, for example, has a 98% chance of a white Christmas), your chances at a white Christmas are a near 100%.
It’s too far out to delve into the forecast, but there’s not much snow in the Front Range’s near-term forecast.
If that trend holds, this could be an especially strange year for Denver: a 2019 with a white Halloween, a white Thanksgiving — and a brown Christmas. Perhaps Mother Nature has a meteorological Christmas miracle up her sleeve.
