With last year’s 91-loss flop in the rearview mirror, the Rockies are hungry to prove 2020 will be different, though their roster remains nearly identical to a year ago.
Following is a position-by-position snapshot as the Rockies get set to open camp at Salt River Field with pitchers and catchers reporting Tuesday. A key stat is included to underscore the analysis:
CATCHER
One — The number of home runs by Tony Wolters in 2019
After making 102 starts last year, Tony Wolters will likely have to carry an even larger burden behind the dish this season. The Rockies have rookie Dom Nunez on the 40-man roster, and beyond that, Elias Diaz and Drew Butera (both signed to minor-league deals this offseason) will provide depth and competition for Nunez. Colorado’s lack of a major league signing at catcher this offseason indicates the club is expecting Wolters to equal or better his .262/.337/.329 slash line from last year. Wolters is a premium defender, but Colorado could use some more power from the position.
FIRST BASE
.289 — Daniel Murphy’s projected 2020 batting average, per Fangraphs
With Daniel Murphy the presumptive opening day starter, Rockies fans have been assured by manager Bud Black, general manager Jeff Bridich and owner Dick Monfort — each on separate occasions — that Colorado will see a different Murphy in 2020. That’s in terms of health (a broken finger limited him to 132 games) and fitness, as the 34-year-old simply wasn’t in proper playing shape in 2019. Whether he can elevate his play around the bag is another question, although backup Ryan McMahon will bring athleticism to the position in Murphy’s stead. After hitting .279 with 13 homers last year, Murphy is projected to bump up to .289 with 16 homers this year, per Fangraphs.
SECOND BASE
-1.0 — Combined 2019 WAR of Garrett Hampson and Brendan Rodgers
The season Ryan McMahon put together in 2019, his first full year in the bigs, breeds promise of a breakout. The left-handed slugger hit .250 with 24 homers in 141 games while displaying defensive versatility at second, third and first. A 30-homer season is not out of the question for McMahon in 2020, especially if he can cut down on his 29.6% strikeout rate from last season. Behind McMahon, Colorado needs more production from much-hyped youngsters: Garrett Hampson had a tough rookie season (-0.2 WAR), and rookie Brendan Rodgers still has much to prove after shoulder surgery ended his 2019. Rodgers hit .224 with no homers in 25 games.
SHORTSTOP
2.4 — Trevor Story’s 2019 defensive WAR ranked 4th in MLB
The golden age of the left side of the Rockies’ infield continues as shortstop Trevor Story appears primed for a third consecutive all-star season. Story hit a career-high .294 with a .917 OPS last year, along with 35 homers and 23 stolen bases. Defensively, the 27-year-old posted a 2.4 WAR and was a finalist for the National League Gold Glove Award for the first time. He’ll surely be in that finalist mix once again this year alongside the Diamondbacks’ Nick Ahmed. Story and the Rockies agreed to a two-year, $27.5 million contract Jan. 31, buying out the shortstop’s final couple years of arbitration. Hampson and Rodgers will back up the two-time Silver Slugger.
THIRD BASE
July 31 — Date of the 2020 MLB trade deadline
With a trade of Nolan Arenado appearing possible this season, fans should take in the once-in-a-generation talent and future Hall of Famer while they still can. Arenado blasted 41 homers while slashing .315/.379/.583, earning his fifth all-star nod and seventh consecutive Gold Glove Award. Whether he’s wowing in LoDo past the trade deadline — or past 2021, when he can elect to opt out of his $260 million deal — remains to be seen, but fans can be guaranteed his uncertain future won’t impact his mindset between the lines. McMahon will also see time at third, having played 22 games there last year, while Arenado’s cousin, Josh Fuentes, could be another possible option for depth.
OUTFIELD
177 — Games played by David Dahl over the last two seasons combined
A platoon’s possible in left field, while David Dahl starts in center and Charlie Blackmon holds down right. Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia and rookie Sam Hilliard will probably split time in left, with the starter likely determined coming out of spring training. Should Dahl stay healthy for a full season, he could easily top his first all-star year in 2019, when he hit .302 with 15 homers in 100 games. Blackmon’s fallen off defensively but is still an all-star hitter. The underperforming Desmond is in the penultimate guaranteed year of his $70 million deal. The ceilings for Tapia and Hilliard are high, even as there continue to be growing pains for the youngsters.
STARTING ROTATION
5.87 — Colorado starters’ ERA in 2019, the worst in the majors
The Rockies believe they can rebound from last season’s disaster when they finished with a major league-worst 5.87 starting ERA. Kyle Freeland needs the biggest bounce-back year of them all after going from opening day starter to midseason demotion to Triple-A in 2019. The southpaw believes a revamped delivery, sans pause, has him on track to regain the dominant form he flashed in 2018. Meanwhile, German Marquez and Jon Gray also have to be steady, as the right-handers were Colorado’s best and most consistent starters last year. On the back end, right-handers Antonio Senzatela, Peter Lambert and Chi Chi Gonzalez need to step up.
BULLPEN
107 — Home runs given up by Rockies relievers in 2019, worst in NL
After the bullpen got bombed for a 5.14 ERA in 2019, second-worst in the NL, Colorado will rely on basically the exact same arms this season. Colorado needs Scott Oberg (bullpen-best 2.4 WAR) to lead the way, while also hoping for rebound seasons from fellow veterans Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee. The biggest key comes with the unit’s youth, and whether the flamethrowing likes of right-handers Jairo Diaz and Carlos Estevez can perform in pressure situations. Jesus Tinoco and Yency Almonte could play a big role, too, as could newcomer Tyler Kinley (claimed off waivers from Miami). The 29-year-old right-hander had a 3.65 ERA in 52 appearances last year.
BENCH
34.9% — The strikeout rate by Colorado pinch hitters in 2019
In 2019, the Rockies weren’t exactly a threat to make the opposition pay with a big swing off the bench, hitting .188 with 13 homers in 298 plate appearances as pinch-hitters. That’s not likely to change this year, as the majority of Colorado’s positional depth is younger, inexperienced players such as Dom Nunez, Hampson, Rodgers and Fuentes, if he makes the roster. Or, perhaps there is a chance Elias Diaz (who played 101 games for Pittsburgh last year) makes the team.
