Five games.
Five games for the coach to show he is the right guy for the job, the quarterback to demonstrate he merits a 2021 starting position, the cornerback to justify his pricey salary cap number, the safety to validate he should be one of the highest-paid players at his position and the defensive end to prove he is deserving of the multi-year contract offer he didn’t get last year.
Even in an expanded playoff year (seven teams per conference), the Broncos enter Sunday nightap game at Kansas City looking way up at the final wild card spot (three games back of Indianapolis) and way, way, way up at the top of the AFC West (six games behind the Chiefs).
All thatap left for the 4-7 Broncos, a loss away from clinching a fourth consecutive non-winning season, is determining who should stay, who should be demoted and who should go after the year.
As the schedule turns to December, the pressure is on five individuals in particular: Coach Vic Fangio, quarterback Drew Lock, cornerback A.J. Bouye, safety Justin Simmons and defensive end Shelby Harris.
Here’s why:
Vic Fangio
So far this year: The Broncos are 4-7 and the custom-built excuse is Fangio has been playing with a short deck because of injuries to Lock, outside linebacker Von Miller, top receiver Courtland Sutton and his Week 1 starting defensive line (Harris/Jurrell Casey/Mike Purcell).
Why he’s under pressure: Itap been said two things get the attention of upper Broncos management — no-show home crowds and blowout losses. The no-show factor is thrown out this year, but the Broncos have lost four games this year by at least 18 points. The last time they lost more than four games by that margin was way back in 1968 (six games).
Key to the final five games: Don’t get blown out, starting with Kansas City. During their 10-game winning streak over the Broncos, the Chiefs have outscored them by nearly 14 points per game. A just-as-big key for Fangio is making sure he encourages his mostly-young roster to run through the finish line.
Quote: “I think he’s a phenomenal head coach thatap leading this organization in the right way.” — left tackle Garett Bolles.
Comment: Unless the Broncos are completely overmatched over the final month, it makes sense to give Fangio a third year.
Drew Lock
So far this year: Lock is last among quarterbacks in completion (55.6) and interception (4.1) percentage, 31st in passer rating (67.5), tied for second in interceptions (11) and only four quarterbacks have fewer than his seven touchdown passes. He also missed two games with a shoulder injury sustained in the Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh and last week’s loss to New Orleans (ineligible due to being a high-risk close contact).
Why he’s under pressure: Too many turnovers. Not enough wins. Period. Since winning the Super Bowl after the 2015 season, the Broncos have changed quarterbacks like most people change the oil in their cars. General manager John Elway and whoever was the coach and offensive coordinator at the time made changes after the 2017 (to Case Keenum), ’18 (to Joe Flacco) and ’19 (to Lock) seasons. The four-interception game at Las Vegas last month should have been the first time the question of Lock’s ’21 status was speculated.
Key to final five games: Fewer turnovers. More wins. Period. Lock’s 2021 cap number of $1,912,042 is a bargain no matter what his role will be. If he shows progress over the final five games, the Broncos should only consider a backup with more veteran experience (because of Lock’s injury history) and not another starting job change.
Quote: “He’s a young player. He’s kind of a ‘rookie-plus,’ player right now. This a tough league. You get challenged every week and you’ve got to step up to it and play well and improve, especially at the stage of his career that he’s at.” — offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur.
Comment: Among the Broncos’ final five opponents, only Kansas City ranks among the top 14 teams in fewest points allowed. Carolina is 15th, Buffalo 18th, the Chargers 25th and Las Vegas 28th. The three-pronged Lock objective — stay healthy, make plays and win.
Justin Simmons
So far this year: Simmons has played all 758 defensive snaps (tops on the Broncos) and is first with four interceptions (tied for third in the league) and second with 68 tackles. He has five run “stuffs” while playing close to the line of scrimmage and only two missed tackles. We have booked him with four allowed touchdowns in man coverage.
Why he’s under pressure: Simmons doesn’t have a contract for next year. How does Fangio feel about Simmons? Likes him a lot, wants him to be a linchpin for his defense. How does Elway feel about Simmons? Likes him a lot, wants him here long-term … but at what price?
Key to final five games: Keep intercepting passes while playing the deep middle safety and each one will help his market should he become available.
Quote: “At the end of the day, am I focused on (postseason honors)? No, not really. I’m focused on making as many plays as I can and trying to find ways to win.” — Simmons.
Comment: The top of the safety table is Arizona’s Budda Baker ($14.75-million average) and Simmons’ camp should be eyeing at least the $14 million average of Washington’s Landon Collins and Kansas City’s Tyrann Mathieu. Simmons should be the Broncos’ top priority.
A.J. Bouye
So far this year: Bouye has played 346 defensive snaps in six games and has 19 tackles, no interceptions and four pass break-ups. He sustained a shoulder injury in the Week 1 loss to Tennessee that cost him four games and he sustained a concussion in the Week 8 win over the Los Angeles Chargers that kept him out of the Atlanta loss. In the three games, opponents are 6-of-11 passing for 67 yards and one touchdown against Bouye in man coverage.
Why he’s under pressure: Money. Bouye, acquired from Jacksonville last March for a fourth-round pick, has always been viewed as a one-year experiment. Play well in 2020 and get to stick around for ’21. Bouye currently has a $13.375 million salary cap hit next year, third-highest on the team. He has no guaranteed money remaining on the contract he signed in March 2017. The Broncos are iffy at cornerback because Bryce Callahan played great before landing on injured reserve last week and Michael Ojemudia/Essang Bassey have had the usual rookie ups and downs.
Key to final five games: Stay around the football. Bouye’s pass break-up last week led to Bassey’s interception (and the Broncos’ only points). When he’s right, Bouye is solid technically, capable of playing zone and man coverage.
Quote: “I thought he played better (against New Orleans). Hopefully he’s getting his playing legs under him and we can see the true A.J.” — Fangio.
Comment: Facts are facts — Bouye enters Sunday with only two interceptions since the start of 2018 (33 games). But he’s a quality corner and if finishes well, it would make sense for the Broncos to add two years to his deal (lowering his ’21 cap number). That would prevent them from needing to go cornerback in the draftap first round.
Shelby Harris
So far this year: Harris was having a productive season when he was derailed by COVID-19 protocols (high-risk close contact cost him the Atlanta game) and then a positive test (which kept him out of the last three games). In 293 snaps, he has 10 pass-rush disruptions (including 2 1/2 sacks), 5 1/2 run “stuffs,” three batted-down passes and 23 tackles.
Why he’s under pressure: Harris returned to the Broncos last March only because the multi-year contract market he envisioned (and the Broncos probably did, too) never materialized and he stayed here on a one-year contract ($2 million base salary). Harris, 29, wants to secure long-term security from some team.
Key to final five games: Pick up where he left off pre-coronavirus, which kept him out of the last four games. Effective run stopper. Batted down passes. Providing an interior pass rush.
Quote: “He’s a good run defender, probably our best inside pass rusher and he was playing a good, complete, sound, all-around game for us — hustling, chasing plays. We’re thrilled to get him back.” — Fangio.
Comment: Defensive end Jurrell Casey counts $11.87 million and $13.85 million on the salary cap in 2021-22, but the Broncos can clear all that money by cutting him. Add that defensive end DeMarcus Walker is a free agent, and the Broncos should prioritize keeping Harris.
