Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Tuesday and while a rodent’s shadow is an unscientific way to predict weather, the long-range forecast suggests Phil made the correct call for Colorado.
The Climate Prediction Center highlighted much of the state in below normal temperatures for the month of February. Despite this week’s mild start to the new month, it does not look like a trend that will last.
The large-scale pattern will evolve across the United States where arctic air can easily spill southward out of Canada. Big, cold areas of high pressure look to track down along the east slopes of the Rocky Mountains, before spreading eastward into the Plains.
This pattern will not only promote several blasts of bone-chilling cold, but it can also lead to upslope snow events for the Front Range and urban corridor. When high pressure dives in from the north, our winds in Colorado will start blowing from east to west. This sends the air uphill, and if it gets timed with an area of low pressure passing nearby, snow can easily break out over much of the state.
For this reason, the CPC is also highlighting the majority of Colorado in wetter-than-normal conditions for the month of February.
The first blast of cold air looks to arrive as early as this weekend, with temperatures being sent well below normal on Saturday and a chance for some snow.
After this initial cold shot, several more look to line up through at least the middle of the month. Cold fronts could push down from the north every few days. This means that any window for warmth, especially in eastern Colorado, will be very narrow or non-existent.
For reference, Denver’s normal high and low for Feb. 3 are 44 degrees and 17 degrees, respectively. By the end of February, the normal high rises to 50 degrees, while the normal low creeps up to 22 degrees. Normal snowfall for the month of February sits at 7.7 inches. This is Denver’s 4th-snowiest month of the year, behind March, April and December.
Long-range signals right now would favor above-average snowfall this month in the Mile High City. An interesting historical anecdote also suggests the possibility of a snowy February. Active Februarys in the snow department have followed nearly 70% of tame Januarys.
If you enjoy warm weather, hopefully you took advantage of the mild weather earlier this week. There is a chance that we have already logged our warmest weather of the entire month.
