1. Buffalo Bills
Coach: Sean McDermott (fifth year — 38-26 regular season, 2-3 playoffs).
2020 record: 13-3 (first in AFC East; lost at Kansas City in AFC Championship Game).
Defensive play-caller: Leslie Frazier (fifth year with Bills).
Best player/best newcomer on defense: CB Tre’Davious White/DE Carlos Basham. The NFL’s leader with six interceptions in 2019, White has made two consecutive Pro Bowls and has 15 picks in 61 games. A second-round rookie, Basham had a streak of 23 consecutive games with at least one tackle for lost yardage.
Key statistic: 243 — plays of at least 10 yards allowed last year, most in the NFL.
Why they’ll finish first: The Bills are in Super Bowl Mode after breaking through last year to reach the AFC title game. Quarterback Josh Allen, receivers Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley and play-caller Brian Daboll put defenses on their heels. The defense was middle-of-the-pack statistically and need their retooled line of Star Lotulelei, Greg Rousseau and Carlos Basham to play well.
2. New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick (22nd year — 244-92 regular season, 30-11 playoffs; 27th year overall — 280-136 regular season, 31-12 playoffs).
2020 record: 7-9 (third in AFC East).
Defensive play-caller: Outside linebackers coach Steve Belichick.
Best player/best newcomer on defense: CB J.C. Jackson/OLB Matthew Judon. Jackson is going to strike it rich somewhere next offseason. He is playing this year on a restricted free agent tender and has a whopping 17 interceptions in only 45 games (22 starts). Judon was a part of the Patriots’ mid-March spending spree and joins from Baltimore, where he had 34 1/2 sacks in 76 games.
Key statistic: 6.29 — yards allowed on first down, highest in the league.
Why they’ll finish second: Forget about all the money the Patriots uncharacteristically spent in free agency on Judon and tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Can New England get quality quarterback play? Not enough to win the division. Mac Jones is a rookie who only started one full season in college. The Patriots will have to lean on their defense, chiefly Jackson and cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
3. Miami Dolphins
Coach: Brian Flores (third year — 15-17 regular season).
2020 record: 10-6 (second in AFC East).
Defensive play-caller: Josh Boyer (second year).
Best player/best newcomer on defense: CB Xavien Howard/DL Adam Butler. Howard has led the NFL in interceptions twice — seven in 2018 and 10 last year. Butler has only 12 career starts in four years (15 sacks), but will get a chance to play more for the Dolphins.
Key statistic: 29 — league-leading takeaway total.
Why they’ll finish third: Two words — Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are committed to him and don’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick as a relief pitcher (he’s in Washington). Miami is hoping Tagovailoa takes a giant step and the addition of receivers Will Fuller and Jaylon Waddle improve the passing game. It won’t be enough, though. The Dolphins will take a big step backward from last year.
4. New York Jets
Coach: Robert Saleh (first year).
2020 record: 2-14 (fourth in AFC East).
Defensive play-caller: Jeff Ulbrich (first year).
Best player/best newcomer on defense: DL Quinnen Williams/S LaMarcus Joyner. The third overall pick in 2019, Williams has 9 1/2 sacks (seven last year) and 83 tackles in 26 games. Joyner had two non-descript years for the Raiders but figures to be effective now that he’s returned to safety.
Key statistic: 52 — negative rushing plays by an opponent (not including kneel-downs), second in the league.
Why they’ll finish fourth: The Jets are starting over. New coach. New quarterback (Zach Wilson). New coordinators (Mike LaFleur/Jeff Ulbrich). New York spent money to acquire receiver Corey Davis and he’ll help Wilson’s transition to the pro game. The big issue is stopping opponents’ quarterbacks. The Jets didn’t dip into the active cornerback free agency market and will lean on Bryce Hall and Bless Austin. Yikes.
