Raiders (3-2) at Broncos (3-2)
When: 2:25 p.m. MT, Sunday.
Where: Empower Field at Mile High.
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS-4
Weather: Mostly sunny with a high of 72 degrees.
Broncos-Raiders series: Broncos are 53-66-2 in 121 regular-season games dating back to 1960; Raiders won 32-31 in last meeting, on Jan. 3, 2021, in Denver.
Key matchup
Derek Carr vs. Denver secondary
In 13 career games against the Broncos, the Raiders quarterback is 7-6 with a 91.3 rating. That includes 2,944 yards passing, and 14 touchdowns to six interceptions.
Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who became friends with Carr after the two QBs came into the league together in 2014, believes Carr will be able to rally the Raiders following a tumultuous week in Las Vegas that saw head coach Jon Gruden resign over insensitive emails.
“I know he’s a guy who’s capable of pulling his troops together and just keeping them focused,” Bridgewater said.
In recent years, Carr has neutralized the Broncos’ pass rush by getting the ball out quickly. Last year, he didn’t have to do much in the team’s first meeting Nov. 15 in Last Vegas — the Raiders dominated the ground game with 203 rushing yards, and Josh Jacobs accounted for 112 of those. That led to a blowout Raiders win, and then the Raiders beat the Broncos 32-31 in Denver in the season finale on Jan. 3 as Carr threw two TDs and two picks.
The Broncos are likely to get cornerback Ronald Darby back this week, which will help solidify coverage against Carr and his array of targets, including tight end Darren Waller, speedy wideout Henry Ruggs III and reliable slot Hunter Renfrow. Safety Justin Simmons knows the secondary will need to play much better than it did in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh, where Ben Roethlisberger threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns.
“Rattling (Carr) when he’s in the pocket and giving him different looks (are key),” Simmons said. “(Containing Carr) starts with the secondary, because itap going to be our play that’s important and being able to cover their skill guys. They have a lot of them. Then, our rush getting after him so rush and coverage are working together.”
Carr’s put up solid numbers against the Broncos despite facing some pressure during those 13 career games. Denver’s sacked him 23 times and forced eight fumbles.
Who has the edge?
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater threw his first interception as a Bronco on his final pass of last week’s loss in Pittsburgh after finally finding a fourth-quarter rhythm. Derek Carr ranks second in the NFL in passing yards at 1,605, only behind Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady. Edge: Raiders
Running back
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams continue to get nearly identical carries, but neither has been able to break free for a big scoring run lately. Josh Jacobs is a potent threat for Las Vegas, but he’s yet to rush for more than 50 yards in a game this season. Edge: Even
Receiver/tight end
Denver continues to be thin at wideout, but Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick are picking up the slack. Noah Fant (21 catches for 176 yards) needs more downfield targets. Henry Ruggs III is Las Vegas’ game-breaker; Darren Waller is a top-three tight end. Edge: Even
Offensive line
Denver’s allowed 14 sacks on the season (tied for 27th) and Las Vegas has allowed 15 (28th), so each team’s protection has been poor. Denver left tackle Garett Bolles must cut down on his penalties and start playing like the All-Pro player he was in 2020. Edge: Even
Defensive line
Dre’Mont Jones has yet to be the game-wrecker the Broncos were predicting he would be in 2021, while Shelby Harris (one sack) is also struggling to generate pressure. Veteran ends Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby will present a big problem for Denver. Edge: Raiders
Linebacker
Von Miller leads Denver with 4.5 sacks, while Justin Strnad has done decently filling in for the injured Josey Jewell at inside linebacker. But Cory Littleton remains a plus-player for the Raiders, while mike backer Denzel Perryman leads them with 60 tackles. Edge: Even
Secondary
After getting toasted by Big Ben last week, Kyle Fuller needs a bounce-back game. And Denver needs Ronald Darby (hasn’t played since hamstring injury in Week 1) back in action. Corner Casey Hayward Jr. and safety Jonathan Abram are anchors for L.V. Edge: Even
Special teams
Brandon McManus hasn’t missed a kick (11-for-11 field goals, 9-for-9 on extra points). But the Denver special teams units can’t go a week without a critical error. Meanwhile, Daniel Carlson (The Classical Academy alum) is also one of the NFL’s better kickers. Edge: Even
Tale of the tape
| Category | Broncos | Raiders |
| Total offense | 357.8 (18th) | 377 (13th) |
| Rush offense | 118.6 (12th) | 78.6 (29th) |
| Pass offense | 239.2 (22nd) | 298.4 (4th) |
| Points per game | 20.4 (24th) | 22.6 (T-19th) |
| Total defense | 292.4 (3rd) | 339.8 (10th) |
| Run defense | 85.4 (6th) | 134.4 (25th) |
| Pass defense | 207(6th) | 205.4 (4th) |
| Points allowed | 15.2 (2nd) | 24 (17th) |
* Through Week 5
By the numbers
60 — The number of times the Broncos have hosted the Raiders in Denver. In those games, the Broncos are 28-30-2.
90.9% — Las Vegas’ red zone percentage on defense, as opponents are finding the end zone in about nine out of ten trips to rank next-to-last in the league.
42.1% — Denver’s red zone percentage on offense, as the Broncos are finding the end zone at a rate that ranks fourth-worst.
28.6% — The Broncos’ third-down conversion percentage, which ranks dead last.
21-7 — Mike Shanahan’s record against the rival Raiders; the ex-Broncos coach will be formally inducted into the team’s Ring of Fame at halftime on Sunday.
Betting/fantasy
Line: Broncos -3.5
Denver is favored in its third home game of the season and rightfully so. Both teams have lost two straight games coming in, despite the Broncos starting 3-0 for the first time in five years and the Raiders opening with close victories over the Ravens, Steelers and Dolphins. But on the chaos meter, the Raiders are faring much worse than the Broncos considering they’re coming off a home beatdown to the Bears and saw head coach Jon Gruden resign this week over fallout from insensitive emails.
Prop bet: Over/under 44.5 total points
Bet the under. The Broncos’ defense has played above-grade even when it’s not clicking on all cylinders, so Denver should be able to keep Las Vegas from settling in. On the other side, the Broncos offense has not inspired much confidence over the past couple weeks that it can sustain drives and capitalize on the big plays necessary to run the scoreboard up past the low 20s.
Fantasy play: WR Courtland Sutton
Why not ride the hot hand? Sutton has been slow to settle into true game-speed this year after coming off his ACL injury last year, but he put up a career performance in the Week 2 in over Jacksonville (nine catches for 159 yards) and then nearly willed the Broncos to a comeback win last week in Pittsburgh (seven catches for 120 yards and a TD). Bridgewater is sure to continue targeting Sutton and Tim Patrick a ton with Jerry Jeudy (high ankle sprain) and KJ Hamler (season-ending ACL tear) on the shelf.
Post predictions
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 27, Raiders 21
Nobody in the history of this storied rivalry has enjoyed beating the Raiders more than Mike Shanahan. With the Mastermind in the house, how can the Broncos possibly lose?
Kyle Newman, beat writer: Broncos 21, Raiders 20
In a mid-October must-win, Denver capitalizes on the mess that Jon Gruden left behind, taking an early lead and then pounding the rock with the combination of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon to ice the win.
Ryan O’Halloran, beat writer: Raiders 24, Broncos 21
New offensive play-caller Greg Olson and always-on-point-against-Denver quarterback Derek Carr keep the Broncos’ defense on their heels and Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs III catch touchdown passes.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Raiders 21, Broncos 17
Four of Vegas’ first five foes built up double-digit leads — the Bears, with a rookie QB, led these guys 14-3 at the half. Do you seriously trust a Pat Shurmur offense to find a groove early? Derek Carr laughs last. And loudest.
