Bengals (7-6) at Broncos (7-6)
When: 2:05 p.m. MST, Sunday.
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Weather: Sunny with a high of 56 degrees and a slight wind.
Broncos-Bengals series: Broncos are 22-10 in 32 regular-season games dating back to 1968; Denver won 24-10 in the last meeting, on Dec. 2, 2018, at Paul Brown Stadium.
Key matchup
Broncos run defense vs Bengals RB Joe Mixon
Bell-cow, workhorse, RB No. 1 — however you label the Bengals’ Joe Mixon this year, the bottom line is he’s been uber-productive.
Mixon has rushed 245 times for 1,036 yards, with a 4.2-yard average and 14 total touchdowns (12 rushing). He faces off against a Broncos run defense that’s bowed up over the past three games since being gouged for a season-high 216 rushing yards in a loss to the Eagles in Week 10.
“He’s a good size for a back,” Fangio said of the 6-foot-1, 220-pound Mixon. “He has good contact balance and good cutting ability. And he runs hard.”
Outside linebacker Bradley Chubb called Mixon “a great running back” and emphasized the Broncos will need to do their best gang tackling to make sure he doesn’t bust big runs (Mixon has six carries of 20-plus yards or more this year).
Gap discipline will be key, especially if Jonas Griffith or Justin Strnad is filling in at inside linebacker for Kenny Young (in concussion protocol). The other starting inside backer, rookie Baron Browning, will be tested as he continues to take on a central role in the defense.
“We could set the edge a little bit better (against the run),” Chubb said. “There were some plays (against Detroit) where I took an inside move and the running back bounced it out. We need to make splash plays, but stay within the defense.”
Who has the edge?
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t done much in the passing game lately, but he hasn’t really needed to. Cincinnati’s secondary is prone for Bridgewater to get going again. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow is tied for the league lead in INTs but can make any throw. Edge: Even
Running back
The combination of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon has been rolling, and last week the tandem became only the third running back duo in team history to each have multiple TDs in the same game. The Bengals have a true elite tailback in Joe Mixon. Edge: Even
Receiver/tight end
Bridgewater has no shortage of weapons, but they’ve been quiet lately. Jerry Jeudy still doesn’t have a TD. Denver needs more big plays from their tight ends. Meanwhile, Burrow’s top trio of Jamaar Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd is dangerous. Edge: Bengals
Offensive line
After injuries caused the Broncos to play with a rotating cast up front through the first half of the season, Denver’s found stability. Right tackle Bobby Massie is questionable (hip). Bengals right tackle Riley Reiff was placed on IR this past week (ankle). Edge: Broncos
Defensive line
Dre’Mont Jones has emerged as a force in the pass rush, and had two sacks last week. Shelby Harris needs more pressures and Mike Purcell has to be big against the run. Trey Hendrickson (questionable with a back injury) leads Cincy with 12 1/2 sacks. Edge: Bengals
Linebacker/Edge rusher
With Kenny Young in concussion protocol, Jonas Griffith and Justin Strnad will help inside along with Baron Browning. Outside linebacker Malik Reed remains on the COVID list. Bengals’ LB (and Wyoming product) Logan Wilson is questionable (shoulder). Edge: Even
Secondary
The Denver secondary gets a boost with the return of Bryce Callahan, who will see snaps from the nickel after missing the past five games with a knee injury. Rookie Pat Surtain II will be tested. Cincy’s Chidobe Awuzie (CU product) went on the COVID list on Thursday. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Brandon McManus is coming off AFC special teams player of the week honors. The Broncos continue to struggle in kickoff return average (31st at 17.1) and kickoff return average against (32nd at 35.7). Cincy’s Evan McPherson is 21 of 26 on field goals. Edge: Even
Tale of the tape
| Category | Broncos | Bengals |
| Total offense | 345 (19th) | 358.8 (14th) |
| Rush offense | 123.1 (11th) | 108.7 (19th) |
| Pass offense | 221.9 (19th) | 250.1 (11th) |
| Points per game | 21.2 (20th) | 27.2 (7th) |
| Total defense | 324.8 (7th) | 349.8 (17th) |
| Run defense | 106.2 (10th) | 93.1 (4th) |
| Pass defense | 218.6 (10th) | 256.8 (29th) |
| Points allowed | 17.5 (2nd) | 22.5 (T-17th) |
* Through Week 14
By the numbers
8 — The number of tackles Kareem Jackson needs to reach 800 for his career, which would make him one of four active defensive backs to reach that mark.
1,022 — Javonte Williams’ yards from scrimmage so far this season, making him the ninth Broncos rookie to reach that mark and first since Phillip Lindsay in 2018.
1,036— Rushing yards for the Bengals’ Joe Mixon this year, which ranks second in the NFL behind the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (1,348).
5 — The number of interceptions by Justin Simmons this year after another pick last week. That leads the Broncos, is tied for his career-high and is tied for the league lead among safeties.
20% — The Broncos’ odds of making the playoffs heading into Sunday’s game, per FiveThirtyEight.
Betting/fantasy
Line: Broncos -1.5
Count on the Broncos to cover as they win by at least a field goal. Coach Vic Fangio’s job security is very much at stake, so his defense needs to come up with a critical stop or two — and will — in order to escape with that narrow victory at home.
Prop bet: 43.5-point over/under
Bet the over. With the seasons on the line for both teams, Cincinnati offensive coordinator Brian Callahan (who spent six years as a Broncos assistant) and Denver offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur should empty their playbooks. Both teams will go over 25 in this shootout.
Fantasy play: WR Jerry Jeudy
Eventually water has to find its level, right? Even with the emphasis on the ground game lately, watch for Jeudy to break out. He had five catches for 47 yards last week, but it’s about time for Jeudy to get his first touchdown (or two) of 2021 against a weak Bengals secondary.
Post predictions
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 24, Bengals 20
Should Denver fall behind early in the game, the home crowd won’t hesitate to boo the home team. But I’m (perhaps irrationally) hopeful we’ll see an entirely different spirit of the season on display at Mile High. Happy holidays, y’all.
Kyle Newman, beat writer: Broncos 31, Bengals 27
The secondary gives up a couple of big plays in a shootout, but ultimately the Broncos’ running game carries the team to victory again as Jerry Jeudy’s first TD of the year is the decisive score.
Ryan O’Halloran, beat writer: Broncos 24, Bengals 20
Cornerback Ronald Darby’s first interception of the year sets up Courtland Sutton’s go-ahead, 26-yard touchdown with under six minutes remaining, moving the Broncos to 8-6.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Bengals 25, Broncos 24
Uncle Vic Fangio is 1-5, straight up, since 2019 in games immediately following a Broncos win of 14 points or more. Until this team proves that it can handle prosperity, the roller-coaster ride continues.
