<u>THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET</u>
JETS at DOLPHINS
1 p.m., Dolphins by 10, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: Playoff contenders have been covering the big spreads against the doormats and even while this is a divisional game, that trend should continue here. This game means a lot to Miami, nothing to the Jets. The Dolphins’ aggressive defense has really stepped up over the past five games, allowing 11 ppg and, together with improving Tue Tagovailoa, has helped Miami amass a plus-61 scoring differential over that span. While the Dolphins’ offense is more efficient than explosive, they can wear down a poor Jets D just as the Saints did last week. Beware the backdoor cover but all the matchups and recent metrics favor the Fish.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.
COWBOYS at GIANTS
1 p.m., Cowboys by 10 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Everybody’s worried about Dak Prescott’s “slump.” Well, the Giants have played five top tier QBs/explosive offensives so far. They have lost to Justin Herbert by 16, Tom Brady by 20, Matthew Stafford by 27 and Prescott by 24 in the first meeting. They lost to Patrick Mahomes by three but the Chiefs offense wasn’t clicking against anyone at the time. So, if anything, this should provide Dak with a chance to take off. Menawhile, that Dallas defense isn’t slumping, fortified by the return of DeMarcus Lawrence and the emergence of Micah Parsons. It’s going to be another long day for whomever the Giants start at quarterback.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
PATRIOTS at COLTS
Saturday, 8:20 p.m., Colts by 2, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The smart money seems to be Indy but the one thing Bill Belichick does best is take away your best player. That would be Jonathan Taylor. If you’re confident that Carson Wentz can beat this defense, then bet on the Colts. But we’re not. The Patriots are going to turn this into a defensive struggle (they’ve surrendered 25 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games) and the Colts are just 1-4 SU when scoring 26 or fewer points. The Pats are also 6-0 SU on the road. In what shapes up as a tactical game between two well-coached teams, we’ll side with the future Hall of Famer.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
CARDINALS at LIONS
1 p.m., Cardinals by 12 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: What a perfect get-well game for the Cards after self-destructing on Monday night. They have won all seven of their road games by double digits and their double-pronged attack should feast against this beat-up Lions defense. The Lions have hung around in a bunch of games this season but Jared Goff is going to have a hard time keeping up with Kyler Murray, who will be super motivated after hearing all the negative stuff after Monday night. The over is also the play here. The Lions could score late if the Cards take their foot off the gas.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the over.
PANTHERS at BILLS
1 p.m., Bills by 10 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: Too many points, even considering the inept Panthers offense, now caught between two QBs in Cam Newton and P.J. Walker. First off, it’s a bit of a trap. The Bills could be looking ahead to next week’s shown in Foxboro. They’re just going to want to get in and out of this one with a clean win. Secondly, Josh Allen has been limping around on a bad foot and he’s a large part of the Buffalo running game. The Panthers can still play defense and if the Bills are one-dimensional that defense will keep this relatively close.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the under.
TITANS at STEELERS
1 p.m., Titans by 1 ½, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Titans’ offense hasn’t made up for the loss of Derrick Henry, as evidenced by a measly 20-point output against the Jaguars. The Steelers, meanwhile, will have T.J. Watt back and he makes a huge difference on that defense. Joe Haden is less likely to return but if he does, those are two important pieces. Ryan Tannehill is not the same QB without the benefit of play action and he’ll be under the gun with Watt back. Ben Roethlisberger may be on his last legs but the guy’s toughness is undeniable. If not for Chase Claypool, he might have pulled off another comeback in Minny. His body gets a break with 10 days rest and with Najee Harris running hard, the Steelers should control the clock and the game.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.
SAINTS at BUCS
8:20 p.m., Bucs by 10 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bucs haven’t failed to cover at home since Week 1 against the Cowboys. Still, this seems like too many points to give in a prime time divisional game with the Saints 3-0 ATS against the Bucs since Tom Brady arrived at QB. The Saints’ defense is still formidable (No. 1 against the rush, No. 7 against the pass) and while it’s not going to shut down Brady, it will make enough stops to keep this a ballgame. The Bucs’ run defense is outstanding but the Saints have an unconventional running game built around Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. After seeing what Josh Allen did with his legs against the Bucs, Sean Payton can scheme up enough plays to cause Tampa problems. Hill’s finger should be close to 100% as well and the Bucs’ secondary is still thin.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the over.
BENGALS at BRONCOS
4:05 p.m., Broncos by 2 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bengals are a lot better than they’ve looked the last two weeks when they basically killed themselves with mistakes and turnovers. They have had to abandon the running game by getting themselves in an early hole but Joe Mixon should be a factor again this week and that will change everything. Denver has the better defense but Cincy has the better QB and Joe Burrow’s pinky finger looked fine last week. The Broncos have destroyed the bad teams and been smoked by the good ones. What are the Bengals? Better than their record and better than the Broncos.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
PACKERS at RAVENS
4:25 p.m., Packers by 4 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Even if Lamar Jackson plays, his ability to make plays with his legs is going to be limited. And it’s not as though the Ravens were rolling over people when he was healthy. That is exactly what Aaron Rodgers (sore toe and all) and the Packers are doing: rolling over people. They have every facet of their offense going and match up well against a flawed defense. The Packers have been money since that opening day fiasco against the Saints with a league-best 11-2 ATS record. And this is a step up in class for the Ravens who have yet to face a good team firing on all cylinders.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.
FALCONS at NINERS
1 p.m., Niners by 9, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: This one just smells like a blowout. The 49ers are playing their best football down the stretch and the Falcons aren’t as good as even their 6-7 record suggests. The Falcons defense will not be able to handle George Kittle or a healthier Deebo Samuel while the Niners’ defensive front should be all over Matt Ryan, who has been having difficulty finding open receivers. Cordarrelle Patterson deserves respect but the 49ers see him every practice in Samuel. They’ll take him away and dominate.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the over.
<u>LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH</u>
RAIDERS at BROWNS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Raiders by 1 ½, 38 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: COVID has turned several games into crap shoots that you should avoid at all costs and this one stands out above all of them. The line has come all the way down from the Browns minus-5 ½, a 7-point swing, but there’s no way to factor in Cleveland’s depleted roster (18 players plus the head coach on the COVID list) against a Raiders season that has already spiraled out of control. We liked Las Vegas with the original points since the Browns can’t get separation from anyone but we’re going to lean precariously toward the dog pound now that the home team is catching points. Case Keenum is a capable backup who should be able to get enough done in what should be a low scoring game and as long as Myles Garrett stays off the COVID list, he’ll harass David Carr (man, does he miss Darren Waller) enough to force a mistake or two.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Browns and the under.
<u>BEST OF THE REST</u>
WASHINGTON at EAGLES
1 p.m., Eagles by 7, 44
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Washington and the under.
TEXANS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Jags by 3 ½, 39 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jaguars and the over.
SEAHAWKS at RAMS
4:25 p.m., Rams by 4 ½, 47
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the over.
VIKINGS at BEARS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Vikings by 3 ½, 44
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the under.
***
WEEK’S BEST BET: Steelers. Their kind of game.
Last week: 9-5
Overall: 109-97-2
Over/under: 115-92
Best Bets: 9-5
