Colorado is seeing either a later-than-usual COVID-19 bump or an earlier-than-expected start to the fall and winter respiratory-illness season, complicating decisions for people trying to time their vaccinations.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment’s showed 20 hospitalizations for COVID-19, four for flu and one for respiratory syncytial virus in the week ending Aug. 29.
At that point, emergency department visits for COVID-19 were creeping up, though they remained low. The positivity rate for tests at a small number of reporting labs also was trending upward, though most people either test at home or don’t bother to determine which respiratory virus they have.
That data, plus the state’s , points to increased circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, though the number of severe illnesses remains low, state epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said.
“It’s a pretty subtle bump compared to last summer,” she said.
In the years since the omicron variant took over, the U.S. has generally seen a pattern of small increases in COVID-19 in midsummer and winter, but the virus’ seasonal patterns still aren’t fully predictable, Herlihy said.
For that reason, she recommends that people get their shot as soon as possible, particularly if they’re older or have conditions increasing their risk of severe disease.
Not everyone is sure of the best strategy. If the current bump passes quickly, people might do well to wait until closer to the holidays for their shot, said Beth Carlton, chair of environmental and occupational health at the Colorado School of Public Health.
On the other hand, it could be that the virus is going to have an extended — but likely not especially severe — season this fall rather than two bumps, in which case people should get vaccinated now, she said.
“I think the seasonal dynamics are unclear,” she said.
Colorado doesn’t have all of the data sources it did at the height of the pandemic, but it retained the most important ones, which show how widely the virus is spreading and how many people are becoming seriously ill, Carlton said. But as funding for public health agencies gets squeezed, the state may not be able to monitor the data as regularly, she said.
“We may be slower to recognize the trends due to the cuts to public health infrastructure,” she said.
In late August, the targeting last year’s most common COVID-19 variant for people over 65 and younger people with at least one risk factor. Healthy people can still get the shots even without a specific approval, and major insurance companies have pledged to pay for them.
Typically, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would recommend the shots shortly after the FDA approves them, but its vaccine advisory committee .
Earlier this week, four national medical societies on seasonal vaccines:
- Children should receive two initial COVID-19 shots, and a follow-up shot if they were vaccinated in infancy and are still younger than 2. if they want older children to get a booster.
- Adults, , should receive an annual COVID-19 shot, with a booster every six months for people at highest risk.
- Almost everyone six months and older should get a flu shot, and older people should consider a high-dose version.
- People who are over 75, who are over 50 and have a chronic condition, or who are pregnant should get the RSV vaccine. Infants whose mothers didn’t get vaccinated before their birth should get an antibody drug to protect them in their first respiratory virus season.
Last year, COVID-19 vaccines cut the odds of hospitalization for adults and for newborns whose mothers got the shot. RSV vaccinations reduced the odds of hospitalization anywhere from half to 80%, of the group studied.
Flu shots didn’t match circulating strains well, and reduced hospitalizations .
Last year, pharmacies couldn’t initially offer COVID-19 shots unless patients presented a prescription, because the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee hadn’t recommended them. Colorado Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ned Calonge then issued a “standing order” — essentially a prescription for the entire state — allowing anyone six months and older to get the vaccines.
On Friday, the state health department reissued Calonge’s order, “guaranteeing that Coloradans can get updated vaccines this fall without administrative delays or hurdles.”
“Anyone who wants an influenza or COVID-19 vaccine should be able to get it,” Herlihy said.
