Broncos (7-7) at Raiders (7-7)
When: 2:25 p.m. MT, Sunday.
Where: Allegiant Stadium.
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS-4
Broncos-Raiders series: Broncos are 53-67-2 in 122 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Raiders won 34-24 in last meeting, on Oct. 17, 2021, at Empower Field.
Key matchup
Broncos coverage vs. Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow
With dynamic tight end Darren Waller sidelined by injury (knee/back) for the past three games and doubtful to play Sunday, quarterback Derek Carr’s been leaning heavily on his top wideout, Hunter Renfrow.
Renfrow’s posted 100-yard games in two of the three weeks Waller’s been out, and Broncos coach Vic Fangio called the third-year pro a “super slot” whom the Broncos need to be aware of at all times.
“Renfrow is really tough to cover, he’s really quick, he’s a favorite of Carr, and they have good chemistry together,” Fangio said. “Itap a tough assignment.”
Nickel back Bryce Callahan will likely be drawing that assignment the majority of the time when Renfrow lines up in the slot and Denver is in man-to-man coverage. Callahan returned last week from a knee injury that caused him to miss five games and Fangio assessed “he played well (against Cincinnati) for his first action back.”
But, as safety Justin Simmons explained, it’s going to take a well-rounded performance from the entire Broncos coverage unit in order to contain Renfrow. In Las Vegas’ 34-24 win over Denver in Week 6, the Broncos did just that, limiting him to three catches for 36 yards.
“(Waller being out) meant a lot more targets for Renfroe,” Simmons said. “He’s a guy who’s a Swiss Army knife for them. They plug him and put him anywhere. Whether it’s against a DB, or a linebacker, he finds ways to get open in man and in zone.”
Denver also needs to be cognizant of second-year pro Bryan Edwards, who has 30 catches for 508 yards and three touchdowns. He’s Carr’s other top target. Carr has racked up 4,162 passing yards to rank second in the NFL behind Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady.
Who has the edge?
Quarterback
Broncos starter Teddy Bridgewater is out due to a concussion he suffered last week, Bridgewater’s second this year. Drew Lock makes his first start of 2021. Derek Carr has 16 TDs to six picks in 14 games vs Denver, with a 93.9 rating. Edge: Raiders
Running back
Javonte Williams continues to be one of the league’s most impressive rookies, while Melvin Gordon is nursing thumb and hip injuries. The last 100-yard rushing game for Josh Jacobs came against the Broncos last year in the desert, when he had two TDs. Edge: Broncos
Receiver/tight end
The Broncos’ passing game has been… all but non-existent. Jerry Jeudy still doesn’t have a touchdown. Courtland Sutton is in a drought. Even Tim Patrick has dropped a pass (gasp!). Hunter Renfrow is the Raiders’ top threat with tight end Darren Waller hurt. Edge: Even
Offensive line
Lloyd Cushenberry tested positive for COVID and so either Austin Schlottmann or Quinn Meinerz is likely to start at center. If it’s Meinerz, Netane Muti would step in at right guard. Raiders right tackle Brandon Parker was limited with a knee injury this week. Edge: Even
Defensive line
Dre’Mont Jones is questionable to play with a foot injury that caused him to miss last week. Shelby Harris is coming off a strong game. Yannick Ngakoue leads Las Vegas with nine sacks, while Maxx Crosby (five sacks) is having a great season. Edge: Raiders
Linebacker
Malik Reed returned from the COVID list this week, giving Denver a boost on the edge. Bradley Chubb is still looking for his first sack after playing a season-high 83% of the snaps last week. The Raiders’ Denzel Perryman is a wrecking ball, but has been hurt. Edge: Broncos
Secondary
Justin Simmons and Pat Surtain II are ballhawks, as the veteran and rookie have combined for nine picks. No Raiders player has more than one interception this year. And Las Vegas lost safety Johnathan Abram to season-ending shoulder surgery. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Denver’s units have improved in a few areas (net punting average, net punt average against). Brandon McManus remains above-grade despite four field goal misses (three from 50-plus). Daniel Carlson is clutch, too, and punter AJ Cole made the Pro Bowl. Edge: Raiders
Tale of the tape
| Category | Broncos | Raiders |
| Total offense | 341.2 (19th) | 372.5 (10th) |
| Rush offense | 123.8 (9th) | 84.6 (30th) |
| Pass offense | 217.4 (19th) | 287.2 (2nd) |
| Points per game | 20.4 (23rd) | 21.8 (18th) |
| Total defense | 319.4 (4th) | 356.6 (21st) |
| Run defense | 106.6 (10th) | 125.3 (26th) |
| Pass defense | 212.7 (5th) | 231.3 (13th) |
| Points allowed | 17.4 (2nd) | 27.7 (31st) |
* Through Week 15
By the numbers
0 — Denver’s turnover margin this year, which ranks tied-15th. The Raiders are minus-4 in the category (tied-23rd).
2011 — The last time the Raiders won a fourth consecutive game over the Broncos, a 23-20 victory in Denver.
66 — Melvin Gordon’s career touchdown total heading into Sunday. Gordon needs one touchdown to tie Saints running back Alvin Kamara (67) for the second-most offensive touchdowns by an active running back since 2015. The Titans’ Derrick Henry is first with 68.
85 — Solo tackles by Las Vegas Pro Bowl middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, a tally that tops the AFC. But he’s missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is questionable for this week.
77.1% — The red zone percentage of touchdowns allowed by the Raiders’ defense this year, last in the NFL. The Broncos’ D ranks 8th, at 48.4%.
Betting/fantasy
Line: Broncos +1
Considering home field advantage is usually worth three points on the line, the Las Vegas oddsmakers don’t have much faith in their hometown team. But also consider: the Broncos suffered lopsided losses to the Raiders in two out of the last three meetings.
Prop bet: 41.5-point over/under
Bet the over. Derek Carr usually plays well against the Broncos, even if Denver’s secondary is one of the top units in the league. And count on gunslinging Drew Lock to take shots downfield, which will result in turnovers but also some big plays for the Broncos’ offense.
Fantasy play: Broncos WR Courtland Sutton
Since signing a four-year extension Nov. 22, Sutton has seven catches for 53 yards and no TDs. That’s not an output one would expect from a Pro Bowl receiver. With Lock back at QB against a suspect Raiders secondary, look for Sutton’s targets and yardage to go up.
Post predictions
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Raiders 24, Broncos 23
Nothing says the holidays like Christmas in Vegas, baby! And the stakes are high! The loser of this game is the odds-on favorite to finish last in the AFC West.
Kyle Newman, beat writer: Raiders 21, Broncos 17
Leave it to the hated Raid-uhs to finally send the Broncos’ roller-coaster season off the tracks. Derek Carr throws a late touchdown to Hunter Renfrow, and the Broncos’ offense sputters again as Denver is eliminated from playoff contention.
Ryan O’Halloran, beat writer: Raiders 27, Broncos 23
Not surprisingly, I give the edge to Las Vegas because its starting quarterback (Derek Carr) is available and the Broncos’ Teddy Bridgewater is injured. Drew Lock throws two touchdowns, but Carr leads the Raiders to their fourth consecutive win over the Broncos.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Raiders 27, Broncos 17
Drew Lock at quarterback, on the road, taking snaps from a backup center. What could possibly go wrong?
